South Dakota has only one House seat, so its House elections are full-fledged statewide affairs, and so we get a rare House poll to look at, from Rasmussen Reports.
It’s not looking good for the three term incumbent and Democrat. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is behind Republican Kristi Noem 53-41 (MoE 4.5) for a huge 90% lead probability. It’s hard to be behind when there’s a 95% likelihood that you’re above 48.5, as is the case with Noem. Intersting quote from Rasmussen:
Noem earns 75% support from those voters who Strongly Favor repeal of the health care bill. Herseth-Sandlin gets 75% of the vote of those who are Strongly Opposed.
The PPACA just isn’t popular enough for those Strongly Opposed to repeal to help Sandlin enough.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
Rasmussen has this pinned down as a post-primary jump in support for Noem. I suppose time will tell if they are correct.