Unlikely Voter

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I know some pollsters have rushed out to take a look at the primary states immediately after Tuesday’s elections, but we all know that those polls tend to have varying unity bounces. Rick Perry’s took a while in fact.

So I’ll let those races simmer a bit and instead look at Illinois today, as Rasmussen polled the Governor and Senate races.

The next Governor of Illinois will have veto power over the state’s projected 18 House districts. This race will get national attention and activism if it’s close. But right now, Rasmuseen doesn’t show it as being very close. Trailing 36-47 (MoE 4.5), incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn only registers an 11% chance of being ahead of Republican Bill Brady.

Of course, the Blago story is ongoing and can’t be helping Quinn right now. Perhaps he’ll rebound after corruption is out of the news in this state friendly to Democrats.

Because Rasmussen has the Senate race much closer, with Republican Mark Kirk leading Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by a slimmer 42-39 margin. That’s a 63% lead probability for Kirk, and to my eye an awful lot of undecideds at this point.

Are all the stories swirling around politicians in the state giving voters reason to wait before deciding? That’s what it looks like to me, when Kirk has a bare +8 favorability balance and Giannoulias has sunk to -7.