Should the Republicans get lucky and take the Senate in November, Patty Murray’s is the kind of seat they will have to win. Washington is friendly territory for Democrats and 2010 should be no exception. However, a poll from late Friday suggests that she may be vulnerable to Dino Rossi and only to the former candidate for Governor.
I’m still so skeptical of Rasmussen’s pre-primary polling technique. In fact, I just hate these carpet-bomb polls that hit every likely matchup. I’m doubtful of their effectiveness because I suspect a degree of fatigue to set in by the end. But for what it’s worth, Rasmussen did hit the Washington Senate matchups, pitting five Republicans against the incumbent Senator Murray.
Four Republicans performed poorly, averaging a lead probability of only 16%. Don Benton pulled 40 to Murray’s 48, Clint Didier 37 to Murray 47, Chris Widener 37 to Murray 46, and Paul Akers 37 to Murray 45. Each pairing has a margin of error of 4.5.
However Rossi makes it a contest at least, taking a credible 41% lead probability with his 46-48 showing against Murray. This number is right in line with his previously shown ability to run well statewide, and I find it credible.
But Republicans must recruit him, and he must win the primary, for this seat to be competitive. And this is only one of a few options the Republicans have to take the Senate from 59-41 to 49-51, even if they sweep every close one this year.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
With all due respect, why are you promoting a 2-time loser for the gubenatorial election as Patty Murray’s opponent? Have you considered any of the other candidates? I would propose that Clint Didier will have a much better chance to defeat Patty Murray. He has a game plan & it’s based on the Consitution. He is very strongly prolife, 2nd amendment, greatly shrinking the massive federal government, drilling for oil in the US NOW & building more clean refineries which would lessen or possibly eliminate our dependence on foreign oil & create much-needed jobs, allowing the states to take repsonsibility for matters that they can clearly better handle at the local level than from DC. These are just some of the highlights. His campaign manager already has a plan to win in King County. They acknowledge that if they cannot garner 42% of that vote, they cannot win – nor could any other candiditate without that mandate. Go & hear him speak & you will be convinced.
Respectfully,
Susanne Waid
Kettle Falls
I’m not promoting him so much as pointing out what the polling demonstrates: He’s the one who has by far the best chance to beat Murray.
If Didier wants to beat Murray he needs to improve his name recognition quickly, because time’s wasting.