By request I’ve looked up the race in Indiana’s 9th District, which appears like it’s going to be a fourth rematch between former Rep. Mike Sodrel and Rep. Baron Hill. Hill voted for the PPACA, so national Republicans are sure to target him in this usually-Republican state that barely went for President Obama in 2008.
Again this is early, but I did find one poll by SurveyUSA in January. It showed Sodrel up 49-41 with a Margin of Error of 4.1, giving Sodrel an 83% chance of being ahead in my model.
However the electoral history suggests this will be a long, hard fight between these experienced rivals in what could be a bellwhether state for 2012.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
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