I promised last week that Newt Gingrich would get a slot in the next graphic, so here it is. When you finish in second or tied for second in the last two national polls, you’ve earned it.
For the first time in a while though, I can’t really say for sure who’s ahead. I don’t know that the Republicans have a frontrunner right now. Is Herman Cain leading, or Romney? How close is Gingrich? Has Rick Perry faded permanently below the Pauldoza line?
When I write about the polling, I hesitate to say more than I have to about the events going on that drive the numbers. I risk introducing unnecessary bias due to mixing the math with my own observations.
But the Herman Cain harassment story is the story right now. Two new pre-debate polls are out. Cain is down further, Rick Perry is back down after Cain attacked him, so guess who’s on the rise, in second or tied for second in both polls? Newt Gingrich.
First came Cain, then came Politico, then came USA Today/Gallup and NBC News/Wall Street Journal with the latest numbers.
This also make three straight post-scandal polls that have shown Cain to have re-lost his lead over Romney.
It always pleases me when two polls taken close together have very similar results. Even if they make out to be wrong some speculation of mine.
So yes, it’s looking like Herman Cain isn’t exactly being helped this week. And if the new Rasmussen poll is genuinely showing a trend from the previous national poll, then he needs this story done as soon as possible. Eyes are wandering.
Obviously the big story this week in the Republican Presidential race is the story Politico broke discussing sexual harassment allegations, and whether Herman Cain would be helped or hurt by that story.
As it turns out, if the new Quinnipiac poll is to be believed, he was already on the way up before the story broke.
Before the cold that really took me down since Friday (to explain my silence since), we checked in on the pre-debate polling for Herman Cain’s first debate as a major contender.
It turns out that Cain’s momentum had taken him even further ahead of the Tuesday debate, though post-debate polling suggests he took at hit in the national audience.
Last week’s shock poll bringing Herman Cain into third place needed confirmation before we could be sure that Cain was a serious contender.
Two new polls of Florida Republicans by SurveyUSA for WFLA and by War Room Logistics seem to provide that confirmation and more: Both put Herman Cain in second in the key early primary state.
Today’s been the single biggest polling day in my estimation since the 2010 elections. Three major releases all containing interesting data. The third and most surprising of those comes from Fox News, which shows Herman Cain not just in third place, but taking a top-tier position usually held in recent weeks by Michele Bachmann or Ron Paul.