Unlikely Voter

One thing Barack Obama has done very, very well for Democrats is turn out voters. Some Democrats have also learned winning models from his campaigns, including Terry McAuliffe in Virginia.

Michigan Democrats want to do the same, but so far the polls aren’t agreeing with them.

Last I looked at these two Republican Presidential primaries, the first primaries since Florida and the first binding races since Nevada, I called it Mittmentum.

I was right about Arizona. Michigan though has remained complicated.

Last week it looked possible that Rick Santorum would keep on winning in February with a big lead in Michigan and a possible lead change in Arizona.

New polling this week though suggests Mitt Romney’s back, and could regain control of the race.

Today’s Twitter talk is focusing on the March 1 debate in Georgia, but the Arizona and Michigan primaries come two days before then.

And it’s looking good for Rick Santorum over Mitt Romney, even in Michigan, the state that was Romney’s big win last time, and where George Romney was once Governor.

Michigan: home of the last of the classical private sector unions. The UAW does not hide its partisan bias, and that influence has kept the whole state leaning toward the Democrats for a while now. Long ago a solidly Republican state, the trend has been toward the Democrats, and the state hasn’t supported the Republican Presidential ticket since 1988, nor a Republican Senator since 1994.

But Democrat Virg Bernero seems to have no chance to be elected Governor, as Republican Rick Snyder is trouncing him in every poll, including this Glengariff Group poll for the Detroit News and WDIV.

It’d take me four days to hitchhike from Saginaw, or to try to fathom what’s going on in the Michigan primaries for Governor. But the races for Governor are important, so I figured I’d at least mention PPP’s latest on the races.

In the possible rematch in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, there seems to be no independent polling yet. By request I looked for polls on this race, but for the budding 2010 matchup of Tim Walberg and Mark Schauer all I find is one internal poll.

Walberg’s is good for him showing 46 R/37 D/5.6 MoE for a 78% win rate for the Republican. I expect real polling only after the primary for a race like this.