Unlikely Voter

Via Jim Geraghty I find that Michele Bachmann is playing fast and loose with the “statistical dead heat” terminology.

It’s bad enough when people pretend that the Margin of Error is a band of uniform probability, and not a bell curve where the extremes are unlikely. But what Bachmann’s email is saying is beyond belief.

Candidates for office aren’t always well known at first. This difference in name recognition can distort early polling, which is why in this Republican Presidential primary race I keep watching approval ratings for clues.

So my personal find today of Gallup’s Positive Intensity Score tracker I think is worth a look, especially as we consider whether Newt Gingrich’s lead is here to stay.

I promised last week that Newt Gingrich would get a slot in the next graphic, so here it is. When you finish in second or tied for second in the last two national polls, you’ve earned it.

For the first time in a while though, I can’t really say for sure who’s ahead. I don’t know that the Republicans have a frontrunner right now. Is Herman Cain leading, or Romney? How close is Gingrich? Has Rick Perry faded permanently below the Pauldoza line?

Obviously the big story this week in the Republican Presidential race is the story Politico broke discussing sexual harassment allegations, and whether Herman Cain would be helped or hurt by that story.

As it turns out, if the new Quinnipiac poll is to be believed, he was already on the way up before the story broke.

First it was one national poll, and we could wait and see. Then it was a pair of state polls, and we could hold on for one more national poll.

But after the new ABC News/Washington Post poll, there’s no denying it. For now we have a three way Republican Presidential race between Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain.

Today’s been the single biggest polling day in my estimation since the 2010 elections. Three major releases all containing interesting data. The third and most surprising of those comes from Fox News, which shows Herman Cain not just in third place, but taking a top-tier position usually held in recent weeks by Michele Bachmann or Ron Paul.

Busy day for polling. The second of three noteworthy poll releases today comes from American Research Group, who polling New Hampshire.

The story today continues to be good news for Mitt Romney.

Quinnipiac put out a pair of new polls, focusing on the Republican primary race in Pennsylvania and in Ohio. They have some problems that limit their utility, but I believe they will get much attention today because of their top line results, so it’s time to take a look anyway.

Why the attention? Romney bucks the national trend again to lead in both states.

Last time around, Mitt Romney took a blow when he took ‘silver’ in his neighboring state New Hampshire, losing to the man who’d been plotting to win the state since the last contested primary there, John McCain.

This time it looks like Romney is going to repeat the McCain strategy. By never having given up on the state since November 2008, Romney looks set to take the state this time around, according to the new Suffolk University/WHDH poll.

The new Gallup poll of the Republican contenders is out, this time with USA TODAY branding. Just looking at the frontrunners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in isolation, it looks like Romney is gaining. What I find interesting though is where that support appears to be coming from.

Romney’s support may be coming from Michele Bachmann.

Last night CNN hosted a key Republican Presidential debate, in which Rick Perry took a variety of attacks. This is critical because going into Rick Perry’s first debate, his favorability ratings were great, and his unfavorables were miniscule compared with the field.

Let’s see where CNN had the state of the race going into last night.

Attacks on Rick Perry, new Presidential candidate and sudden poll leader, have begun to mount. He will soon take the stage in a debate against the other candidates. His opponents in both parties are determined to leave a mark on him.

Let’s take a look at where he’s at as the pressure grows.

Earlier this week we caught an Iowa poll showing Rick Perry as a new leader in that state’s Republican Presidential race. Yesterday Public Policy Polling came out with a new Iowa poll as well.

Judge for yourself, but I’d say the broad strokes of the We Ask America poll are confirmed, at least when it comes to the big three candidates, though maybe not with Sarah Palin.