Unlikely Voter

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Of all the seats Republicans are defending this cycle, the one I think is most likely to flip is Ohio. Number two on that list is Missouri, so when I see results like Rasmussen’s on that race, I’m not surprised a bit.

So yeah Roy Blunt still leads, but it’s very close, as Robin Carnahan is with two at 47-45 (MoE 4.5) for a 42% chance she’s ahead.

Opposition to the PPACA is way out in front at 58-38 in favor of repeal, but as we’ve seen in other states, it’s the candidates themselves that seem to drive the polling. Blunt and Carnahan are effectively even in favorability, with Blunt at a net zero with 18% very favorable and very unfavorable, and Carnahan pulling a net +1 with 27% very favorable and 26% very unfavorable.

In some states the polling is even because both candidates are hated, but at least in Missouri they’re both neutral.