I’ve been telling people PPP’s polling Iowa was making nonsense predictions. The pollster has doubled down.
I’m going way out on a limb here, and if the actual results refudiate what I’m saying then I’m going to have to take some taunting, but I just don’t see how this poll remotely reflects reality, and I’m flatly saying it’s not predictive of the caucus results.
The facts: 597 LVs, no mention of mobile handling. MoE 4.
The results of this poll are going to get huge play. While they predict less for Mitt Romney than the apparent Rasmussen outlier for Romney, PPP seems to show an apparent rush of support from Newt Gingrich to, well, every other candidate. Six candidates are in double figures, three at precisely ten: Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum tie for fourth. Gingrich comes in third at 14, his lowest Iowa poll result in six weeks. Mitt Romney checks in at 20, and Ron Paul finishes first at 23. Between the Paul lead and the Gingrich crash, this poll will generate lots of web hits for PPP.
The problem with the poll is that it’s just not likely to be true, though. We have a benchmark for evaluating this poll: 2008 Iowa caucus entrance polls. The partisan alignment is all wrong: In 2008 the caucuses, being closed of course, included 86% self-identified Republicans, 13% self-identified Independents who presumably registered Republican to caucus, 1% Democrats, 1% “Other.” PPP’s poll drops the Republican proportion to 75%, raises Independents to 19%, and raises Democrats to 5%. Guess who’s helped by both of those shifts, which are far outside the Margin of Error and so predict genuine, large shifts in the partisan makeup of the closed Iowa caucuses. That’s right: Ron Paul, who wins 40% of Democrats, 34% of Independents, but only 19% of Republicans according to the poll.
There are three broad possibilities: The 2008 entrance polls are wrong. The 2012 Republican caucuses will find huge new turnout from independent voters showing up and registering Republican. The PPP poll has systemic issues and is not meaningful.
Other suspicious bits: Do we really believe that 36% of “Very liberal” Iowa caucusers went for Mike Huckabee and not Rudy Giuliani or John McCain? Do we believe the Republican Party’s makeup has shifted so that John McCain would have tied for second in Iowa in 2008? That’s what PPP says: Huckabee 26%, Romney and McCain 19%. Remember that the actual result was Huckabee 34, Romney 25, Fred Thompson 13, McCain 13.
Polls with solid fundamentals can be tweaked with post weighting to correct the results. However the rule of Garbage In, Garbage Out applies. The PPP results are disconnected with any sort of reality we can compare them with. Reports of a Ron Paul takeover in Iowa are nonsense until proven otherwise. Because fundamentally: Do we really think a horde of Independents who hate the Republican Party will show up at the last minute, register Republican, and caucus for hours with Republicans? I don’t buy it, and neither should Iowa Republicans.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
Wouldn’t it make sense that, in the absence of a Democratic caucus, turnout among independents/moderate Dems would go up in 2012 compared to 2008?
Ha ha ha!!! Sure sure,
The polls are fine and dandy UNLESS they favor Ron Paul!
Them they’re faulty…What a joke ha ha!
Ha ha ha!!! Sure sure,
The polls are fine and dandy UNLESS they favor Ron Paul!
Them they’re faulty…What a joke ha ha!
Wait a second … you Paulbots have been screaming for years that the Polls are all wrong when it comes to Paul. Now that he showing as leading they are suddenly credible? Your conspiracy theories and faith in straw polls never ceases to amaze me.
I think what he means is the MEDIA says the polls are correct, unless Ron Paul is leading. THEN there is something wrong with them.
fnord
Actually, PPP, for the longest time would not INCLUDE PAUL in their polls. So to now claim they’re biased for Paul is hillarious. Just ask PPP how many times they’ve HUNG UP ON US Ron Paul supporters…. LOL
Are you serious? Do you not see the absurdity in your statement? The hypocrisy is on YOUR side.
its often said that when someone can’t refute a point, they resort to character association. You just did exactly that while display a gross lack of maturity.
How are you going to debunk the Insider Advantage poll released today which has Ron Paul up 6% in Iowa? The proprietor of Insider Advantage is Matt Towery who ran GoPAC for Newt Gingrich.
Hey genius… I posted on that long before your comment.
“He only wins if the youth show up.”
I see what you mean. Your opinions have a shelf life of a few hours.
hey people dont ya know that you have scant time. s1867 and hr1540 sections 1031 1032 1033 1034
time to get smart this government just proclaims war on the american people when this bill is signed into law. posse comitatus is dead. military can hold you at their discression or at the presidents discression for an unlimited time.
Now you want your constitution back who would be the best one to elect? im not in this equation for as a mining engineer i have my safe place. But to you in the city God have mercy on your souls. and you can call me any name, its your call.
but When it comes to freedom and justice read your declaration of independence and constitution and bill of rights learn for in them is your freedom or slavery if you dont protect them.
Election time put that person who best epitomises your liberties for we are not going to get another chance.
Amnd work on your local level to get people who want to patern their service through the constitution. the sheriffs are supposed to be the top law officer of the land,
many ,too many dont understand their rights for the4y are not privleges Privleges are made by those in power to subjegate us. learn to be just and freedom will follow.
“Refudiate” is not a word. Upon seeing such drivel, there is no point in reading the rest of the “analysis”.
Neil Stevens you are the epitome of mainstream media propagandist. I am a lifelong Christian Republican, I fish, I hunt, have a Master’s Degree in Communication and I feel the lack of fair coverage for Ron Paul goes against every standard of integrity in journalism. Edward R. Murrow and Walter Cronkite would be ashamed of the modern mainstream media. Here are SEVENTEEN FACTS that PROVE Ron Paul is the BEST candidate for President for any doubters that think he is “unelectable” PLEASE copy and share on your Facebook wall too:
1) Please HONOR our American soldiers. They have a message for you! Ron Paul gets more donations from active duty AMERICAN soldiers than any other Republican candidate combined. He even receives more money from them than Obama as well. Our troops support his respect for the Constitution, our economy, and foreign policy. Please respect them and watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8NhRPo0WAo
2) “Ron Paul bests President Obama 48 to 39 percent among independent voters. The poll also showed Paul as the ONLY Republican candidate leading President Obama among independents.” Here’s the proof. What do Ron Paul, Ronald Reagan, and Barry Goldwater have in common? They represent the libertarian wing of the Republican Party and the future for the GOP that has lost it’s way. The failed neoconservative big-spending and war-loving era of the George W. Bush and Dick Cheney wing of the Republican party have been rejected by young Republican voters who want to restore our Republican party BACK to the Constitution again. http://www.salon.com/2011/11/28/why_young_voters_love_ron_paul/singleton/
3) Chuck Norris Endorse Ron Paul as the MOST HONEST Republican candidate we could ever hope to have in office as President of the United States. Please watch. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6efKKFFLZJs
4) Everyone (especially journalists with an agenda) should watch and share this five minute video that aired yesterday from a Fox News affiliate that completely DEBUNKS three big myths about.
Presidential candidate and frontrunner Ron Paul:
Myth 1: He’s too radical.
Myth 2: He wants to let older people die.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4U4rtQlgTR4&feature=share Myth 3: He’s an isolationist. Here is the Iran foreign policy follow-up video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrwfO3HiL7Y
5) Foreign policy experts agree with Ron Paul as well.
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/11/foreign-policy-experts-agree-with-ron-pauls-controversial-foreign-policy/
6) Here is Ron Paul’s plan for national security and restoring our foreign policy. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QhmF7sNlraU
7) Ex-CIA Chief Confirms that he supports Ron Paul because he is correct about foreign policy more than ANY other Presidential candidate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyYo-lqmm7s
8) MEDAL OF HONOR RECIPIENT Marine Dakota Meyer confirms what Ron Paul has said and needs to be rewarded for speaking out against the military industrial complex that President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned about is trying to discredit this Medal of Honor winner. “These allegations were made in retaliation for objections Dakota Meyer raised about BAE’s alleged decision to sell high-tech sniper scopes to the Pakistani military.” http://news.yahoo.com/marine-won-medal-honor-fights-allegations-mentally-unstable-171346866.html.
9) Vietnam Veteran Ron Paul has the power and the will as Commander and Chief to bring our troops home NOW and stop wasting money overseas to protect our own borders. More civilians were killed last year in ONE Mexican border town than ALL of Afghanistan COMBINED! Can anyone with a brain explain why our troops are overseas fighting an endless war for Empire in the Middle East when we are not protecting our back yard as a Republic? http://nation.foxnews.com/afghanistan/2011/02/28/more-civilians-killed-last-year-one-mexican-border-town-all-afghanistan
10) General Fuller in charge of training the Afghans was fired for speaking THE TRUTH about the corrupt dictator in Afghanistan (President Karzai) who is saying that if Pakistan ever declares war on the United States they will defend Pakistan instead of the United States. Afghanistan is our enemy. Please read and share. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45169527/ns/world_news-south_and_central_asia/#.TrdWIrJTYTA
11) As for the economy Ron Paul has been right for 30 years and has the best plan for a balanced budget backed up by economic experts. His voting record is perfect on the issue as well. He has never voted for an unbalanced budget. Every time the privately owned Federal Reserves prints more money out of thin air it devalues the dollar. That means your wages buy less and less every time they push the band-aid solution of quantitative easing making groceries, gas, and other bills MORE expensive. Time to audit the Federal Reserve before they waste TRILLIONS more of your tax money without ANY oversight. Congress wasting money is a picnic by comparison to what they have done. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIAVKUqeuQw
12) He is a doctor who has personally delivered 4,000 babies and is pro-life because he respects how precious every life is AND also respects a woman’s right to prevent pregnancy with birth control methods such as the morning after pill because it’s impractical to police that. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1HQboY8Oss
13) Ron Paul is also against ALL forms of torture including water-boarding.
A) Proof water-boarding is illegal. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2011/nov/15/ron-paul-says-torture-illegal/
B ) Multiple military branches say torture never works.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/interrogation-experts-from-every-branch-of-the-military-and-intelligence-agree-torture-doesnt-produce-useful-information/
C) Matthew Alexander is a former senior military interrogator who conducted or supervised more than 1,300 interrogations in Iraq. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/04/tortured_logic
14) Minorities support Ron Paul in droves and here is why in their own words. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fg8yvjwgnDs
15) Ron Paul addressing the false allegations of racism on CNN. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKBlk1Vpeuw
16) The President of the NAACP in Texas trusts Ron Paul. http://www.dailypaul.com/25562/naacp-president-ron-paul-is-not-a-racist
17) Finally, Here is how to register yourself and others as a Republican even if you may now be a Democrat or Independent to help Ron Paul win the GOP primary nomination in your state. Thanks! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HawiHvxloms
I’m actually going to approve this, but I didn’t read past the first sentence. Apologies to my few readers if it contains something offensive.
I like how you mainstream “journalists/ pollsters?” put your fingers in your ears and go “la la la la” whenever anyone calls you out on your integrity. Your smarmy, academically adept J-school teachers would be so proud.
Nice, way to prove his point. You’re ridiculous.
Benfranklinx- Not for nuthin’ but I really won’t be making my choice for Prez based upon who Chuck Norris likes. Just sayin’…
Is Chuck Norris in the Constitution? Article 1 section 8?
I’m pretty sure Chuck Norris wrote the Constitution.
I’m pretty sure Chuck Norris wrote the Constitution.
Chuck Norris is so tough that the only reason “all men are created equal” is because Chuck Norris deems it to be so!
The Chuck Norris thing was a bit of humor…
“Chuck Norris doesn’t do push-ups, he pushes Earth down.”
I’m not sure that this survey can be directly compared to the 2008 entrance poll data. In 2008 there was a very hot Democratic caucus fight going on as well, that would have served to draw virtually all Democrats and some independents over to that caucus, rather than the Republican caucus. Lacking that fight this year, and with all the action on the Republican side, it would stand to reason that more independents would come play in our sandbox this time.
No kidding and such an obvious point no one could honestly miss it. Therefore, one is hard pressed to accept this post as nothing more than wishful thinking. The partisain makeup of the caucus will be much more favorable to Ron Paul. Nor has anyone suggested that Ron Paul’s support is weak or undermotivated- expect Paul to thump these results (and Insider Advantages numbers as well). Paul will easily get over thirty perhaps as high as forty percent.
Gingrich will fade to oblivion and join Cain, Santorum, Perry and Bachmann on the also ran list. Romney will run around like a chicken with his head cut off telling everyone whatever he thinks will get him a vote and lose all respect even among his media cheerleaders.
“Do we really think a horde of Independents who hate the Republican Party will show up at the last minute, register Republican, and caucus for hours with Republicans?”
You better believe it.
“Do we really think a horde of Independents who hate the Republican Party will show up at the last minute, register Republican, and caucus for hours with Republicans?”
Yes, we do. Independents are sick and tired of the way both parties have screwed up this nation.
That’s exactly what I’ll be doing! :)
It’s not just Independents that will register Republican, but Democrats as well. Just as many Republicans switched party to vote for Obama in ’08, many Democrats are becoming “Blue Republicans” in 2012. It may be hard to have that ‘R’ after your name for a while, but worth it to have a decent presidential candidate for once.
I love how far you have to stretch to make yourself feel better about the results of a poll “The problem with the poll is that it’s just not likely to be true” “There are three broad possibilities” “this poll will generate lots of web hits for PPP.” Give me a break, lol
There is one more possibility. The People are waking up and are tired of wasting trillions overseas helping those who don’t want our help.
Ron Paul 2012!
Nate Silver NYT
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/statuses/148640169606643712?_escaped_fragment_=/fivethirtyeight/status/148640169606643712#!/fivethirtyeight/status/148640169606643712
Very good analysis, Mr. Stevens, and a necessary one for sure.
Many, or I safely can say most Ron Paul faithful have been extremely critical of polling firms such as PPP or Rasmussen. When a poll swings fully in their favor, they shouldn’t rest on its laurels.
Given what I’ve seen on the ground and online so far, the intensity has been taken up a couple notches in the Ron Paul camp. This article serves yet another reminder that they have much more work to do.
Pretty sure “refudiate” is not a word.
It’s a perfectly cromulent word.
Such a word embiggens the smallest man.
When used without quotation marks, it makes me question the author.
I not only deny this allegation, but also the alligator
You’re going to get more readers now. Your article is linked to the Atlantic Wire which is linked to Drudge’s main headline. Regarding your article, the NY Times also has Paul in front in Iowa based on a statistical analysis:
Paul Moves Into Lead in Iowa Forecast
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/paul-moves-into-lead-in-iowa-forecast/
Yeah that’s irony there that this post is now getting me lots of web hits. :)
“Do we really think a horde of Independents who hate the Republican Party will show up at the last minute, register Republican, and caucus for hours with Republicans.”
I’ll just leave it here: BLUE. REPUBLICANS.
“Ron Paul is also against ALL forms of torture including water-boarding.” Well, I agree with Ron Paul over most issues, but this is one I don’t agree with. Anyone saying that torture doesn’t get results is naive and basing this belief on their own personal preferences for how the world should work. I suppose you could say that it gets good results but you disagree with the means. I would once again disagree in the case of captured terrorists who have already forfeited whatever ‘basic’ rights they have, especially compared against an innocent populace. When you compare the lives of many innocent people versus that of a single guilty person how can you come to any other conclusion?
Oh, torture gets “results”, all right, but what it gets is the anything that the victim thinks the torturer wants to hear — as opposed to the truth.
The problem with victims admitting guilt or culpability based on pain relief rather than reality is that (a) the torture results in a skewed view of reality, and (b) when guilt is incorrectly assigned, the real guilty part(y|ies) go free while the “admission” of the torture victim only serves to misdirect the authorities.
So while torture get “results”, the point is that it isn’t a reliable way to get at the truth, and without the truth, we’re not really any better off. That’s the practical argument against torture, and it is a *very* strong argument.
There’s another argument against it as well: Torture is inhumane; and even when your enemy stoops so low, following them down is the wrong choice. Either we’re better than them, or we’re the same as them. The totrure outlook leads to “same as them.” No thank you.
Actually, if you had actually FINISHED reading the section before being blinded by your pro-torture mentality, you would have noticed the REST OF THAT POINT in the sub-sections listing why torture shouldn’t be used, due to ON THE GROUND EXPERIENCE… not opinion.
Military commanders, analysts, and former INTERROGATORS have come out saying they agree with Dr Paul on this one. Below is the ENTIRE section your eyes must have closed out before you could finished reading:
“A) Proof water-boarding is illegal. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2011/nov/15/ron-paul-says-torture-illegal/
B ) Multiple military branches say torture never works.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/05/interrogation-experts-from-every-branch-of-the-military-and-intelligence-agree-torture-doesnt-produce-useful-information/
C) Matthew Alexander is a former senior military interrogator who conducted or supervised more than 1,300 interrogations in Iraq. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/05/04/tortured_logic“
“hordes of independents who hate the Republican Party?”
Where have you been? More and more Americans are registering Independent these days; this does not mean that they “hate the Republican Party.” You really went off the rails on that one, sir. Climb back out of the ditch and get educated if you wish to remain relevant to today’s politics. This is not your grand-daddy’s election. There is a clear difference in the behavior of today’s young voters.
I agree. Neil you need to do a little more research before you write articles my man. A simple search for the numbers and you would have been able to find this ABC statistic of the shift made by Independents into the Republican party as of 2010.
“Obama snagged 52 percent of unaffiliated voters in 2008, but those independents flocked to Republicans in the 2010 midterms with 56 percent opting for a GOP candidate. Between 2008 and 2010, there was a 27-point shift in which party independents chose.”
http://www.abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/12/voters-flee-democratic-party-in-key-swing-states/
It is, frankly, a shame when I read articles written by anti-Paul minions that have misspellings and inaccurate, poorly researched “facts” scattered throughout their work. It only discredits those who are against him THAT much more.
Neil? are you there? Neil? I think this was a very nice comment that shines a light on your bias and journalistic integrity. Its normal these days and I do think you might be on to something with these results but never the less…
Fascinating. The argument here depends on: 1) Dismissing the possibility that, in this time when both major parties are reviled, 1) “Independents” would register to support the most “independent” Republican candidate. And 2) contending that the base of a party that increasingly identifies as “Christian conservative”, and the heart of the original Tea Party movement, would all jump to the candidate – Romney – who is one of the candidates whose has demonstrated the least sympathetic to those values, rather than a candidate – Paul – whose expressed belief is that your values are none of the government’s business and who embraces the states’ rights position at the core of that belief. I think you might misread the current sentiments of the electorate Mr. Stevens rather wishfully.
(What we really need is the option to vote “None of the Above”: If “None” wins, the election is re-run and none of the candidates who ran the first time get to run again until the next election cycle 2 or 4 years later.)
NV has that voting option. It’s not generally been an issue.
You lost me at “refudiate”
It is disgusting how most “journalists” go out of the way to discredit Paul’s popularity. If this poll was about any of the other candidates, NO ONE would be writing how the poll is wrong.
I only happened here because of a retweet on Twitter (congrats on the attention), but I can’t help but be flabbergasted by this poor analysis.
As has been pointed out in the very first comment, one which you did not respond to, your thesis is flawed from the get go. There is no Democratic race. This is incredibly important and something you are flat out ignoring. The number of independents is going to shift dramatically (and not only in Iowa). In New Hampshire, an open primary, fully 40-50% of the vote is going to be from independents, a huge jump up from 2008. In South Carolina, another open primary, we will see a jump as well.
Secondly, you’ve discounted the possibility that because there is no Democratic race AND because of Ron Paul’s buoyed support, that MORE independents and Democrats could register to vote than you are otherwise assuming. He could be a magnet. I don’t think PPP is incorporating this, but it’s something you need to consider. I’m also not surprised that Mike Huckabee did well amongst that group. He was purely a social issues candidate, which draws in from all quarters.
Finally, the 2008 numbers reflect people’s mistaken memories as much as anything else. They remember voting for the ultimate winner of the race (McCain) even though they did not. While not common, this isn’t uncommon either, so when you see that McCain is at 19% or whatever, this is not a good enough reason on its own to throw out the poll. People’s memories aren’t exactly a great barometer.
All in all, I don’t see anything in this post to necessarily throw out, or even discount, the new PPP poll. And your conspiratorial conclusion that they are doing it for attention is just a bridge too far in terms of silliness. ….And for the record, I am a non-Iowan and a Huntsman supporter (& I wouldn’t trust Ron Paul to fry my eggs, let alone be President).
I’d like to say that personally, I’ve never been more politically involved in my life. I mean that.
Ron Paul is on fire. I have nothing but the utmost respect for this man. He is the American Cicero.
A true statesman and patriot of the highest order. If we had jut 20 or 30 Ron Pauls in congress this nation would be transformed.
I don’t know. You could be right, about PPP, you could be wrong. It STILL reeks of the MSM/neocon/anybody-else-in-polling-pretty-much desperation that seems to be crying out from everywhere: “Ron Paul can’t be doing this well, Ron Paul can’t be doing this well, Ron Paul can’t be doing this well….”
Like Dorothy and “There’s no place like home” Even if he wins Iowa, it will go on. What if that catapults him to a NH win, as admittedly unlikely as that is? Will he then get some respect? Jeez…
I am a Dr, Pau’sl, er, fan? Another article (linked thrugh Drudge) pointed to this web site, for a critique of the poll. I read nothing here to be concerned. It is simply another view on the polling sample. Only the actual vote will decide who is correct. All we are doing right now is reading tea leaves. And, I am not sure which method is more accurate. Pointy hats with stars anyone? ;)
BTW, in 2008 I attended a meet-up — about 20 people present — of which I was the only one with a history in the GOP (including 2 state conventions). The results proved that supporters of Dr. Paul’s, not already involved in GOP primaries’ voting, did not show to vote in those primaries. Maybe this time is different.
We will see.
Go, Ron!
These polls are just more evidence that we need to get Iowa and New Hampshire out of the way so the grown-ups who don’t believe they actually need to physically meet a candidate for them to be qualified to be president can start voting. Apparently these cornhuskers also now believe Mitt Romney is more conservative than Newt Gingrich. They’re certainly not helping their reputation with that zany belief.
These polls are more reliable than people like you twisting the facts. Ron Paul is the ONLY conservative in the race!
….and notice they don’t say the polls are wrong when Newt or Mitt leads them…. HA!
Actually, when Rasmussen put Romney ahead in IA, I called it an outlier (wrong, for readers in Rio Linda).
Anyone with an ounce of logic and common sense that watched the last Iowa debate should have walked away convinced that Ron Paul is nothing if not the Crazy Uncle in the attic.
I’m undecided but leaning at this point and Ron Paul was never my candidate. However, being objective watching the debate I really thought Paul came off as the twin brother of Dennis Kucinich. Not Conservative vs. Liberal but sane vs. insane.
You’re right, he’s crazy…
Do not compromise on the constitution? Crazy!
Stop spending what we don’t have? Crazy!
Stop getting involved in everyone’s business around the world? Insane!
Stop giving out foreign aid while we can’t even provide jobs for ourselves? Crazy!
Take a look at what’s going on inside the Fed and Audit them for REAL? Crazy!
Ron Paul will take Iowa by a wider margin than this polls shows.The people are fed up with this nonsense, and they have a new weapon – the internet. We actually have the ability to research candidates without the pundit spin. God bless this new era of American democracy!
Way to wait until right when paul comes in first for the first time to post an article like this. Couldn’t have been bothered to do it when any of the flavor-of-the-month candidates suddenly surged to the top from mediocre numbers, could you?
Are these folks in Iowa not very smart or are they trying to keep the candidates spending money as long as possible…
No candidate ever brought so many different groups together in one place.
nader paul kucinich gravel mckinney baldwin ventura sheehan perot carter
Independent Voters will control the primary
Independent Voters will control the election.
goodbye status quo establishment criminals
Would an independent really hold their nose and register Republican, just to vote for Paul? I know of one, myself. And, it was a very difficult decision because of principles it was very hard to register Republican, I actually lost sleep. Think then of the deeper meaning, who among the Republicans has the best chance of winning the general election? A person who can get Democrats and Republicans to cross over or the straight line neocon?
Denial ?
The synogogue of satan fears Ron Paul and WILL stifle progress through any of it’s owned outlets of the information highway. Anybody for internet control and lockdown ?
Uh-Oh ! Can we be now indefinitely detained for voicing such sedition ? Maybe we should poll the bought and paid for publik servant sector ?
Disgusted.
Paul outperformed most caucus polls in 07/08 by something like a 3 to 1 margin, and that’s when there WAS a democratic primary. Most had him at 1-3% and he pulled 9% (ahead of Giuliani).
To say that Paul’s doesn’t bring out more democratic, independent, and previous non voters than other candidatesis just plain ignorant of the facts – especially when there is no democratic primary to compete with.
How about the fact that 1) yes Paul does do very well with disgruntled / non voters (you know the voters that AREN’T POLLED) and 2) Paul does exceptionally well with the younger vote (you know the voters without land lines that are also NOT POLLED)
If anything I wouldn’t be surprised to see Paul’s impact in this caucus underestimated by this poll, not inflated.
This is silly and ignores the obvious. Take a look at history, participation by Independents and members of opposition party always goes up when there is no caucus on the other side.
Combine that with a candidate who appeals strongly to young people, the group most likely to be unaffiliated with a party, and it seems you’re just trying to make hay out of nothing with no critical thought.
What a joke!
This smear campaign against Ron Paul was expected. This just means that we are getting too close for their comfort… Remember, the last person to challenge the Federal Reserve banking system was Kennedy. We all know what happened to him. I wonder how far Ron Paul will get…
http://r3voluti0n.com/2011/the-american-dream-a-true-story/
Refudiate? Really?
Gallup & Times polls show either the same results, or shifts in the same direction. Here is what is going on: People are finally waking up to the fact that Newt & Romney are “just like” Obama on many key issues. RP is the only person on the ballot who would make moves in favor of the United States of America, rather than only in favor of the Globalist/Forever War/Bankruptcy agenda.
From Wikipedia…”Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American Democratic Party-affiliated polling firm, PPP was founded in 2001 by businessman and Democratic pollster Dean Debnam,”
I cannot accept a poll run by Democrats. It’s too much dirty tricks to totally freak out and confuse the voters. Drudge is not helping matters running it as his main headline. The poll is way off from what the other polls are predicting, DON’T BUY THE HYPE!
We are coming. Expect Us.
Ron Paul 2012
I am not a conservative. In fact I’m a gay liberal. And I can tell you PPP is not worth the pixels it’s created with. In a recent NC poll regarding the anti gay marriage amendment, the pollster used the same sample to ask about support for the amendment as well as poll for the upcoming NC governors race. the problem? The amendment will be on the ballot for the primary in May (when many democrats will not be voting), yet their sample included 47% democrats and republicans in the 20’s. That may work for the general, but not for a republican primary. Furthermore, the one group that unquestionably supports gay marriage (age 18-29) somehow ended up being the most fervent supporters (at 67%) even higher than those over 65. When I commented about these discrepencies on their website I was sarcastically dismissed . As the author of this post said, “Garbage in, garbage out.”
…. wow. You ignored the obvious. The 2008 entrance polls can’t be used because there was a very hot fight in the democratic caucus between Hillary and a then-young then-exciting black candidate. The Republican primary by contrast was very dull and uninteresting. Only republicans showed up to vote in the republican caucus. In 2012 there will be a far, far bigger turnout by independents than in 2008. I’m a self-identified independent, and I wouldn’t think of caucusing for Obama in 2012 because he’s got the nomination wrapped up, that would be a waste of my time. I’m planning on voting for either Mitt or Ron Paul, the rest of the field is nuts or unelectable.
Let me get this straight, you used the phrase “nuts and unelectable” in the same sentence as “Ron Paul,” but were describing someone else? You must have made a typo in there somewhere.
Mike huccabee WAS a liberal though. A Huge Tax and Spend liberal so much that the Club for Groth ran attack ads against him.
I think PPP is registering the opposition Democrats about right. I have never talked to so many Democrats who are disgusted with 0bama enough to change parties. Internal Democrat polling shows HALF of the “white” Democrats expect 0bama to lose.
If the main reason for doubting this is that it requires dems and indies to register Republican to vote in the primaries, you might want to reduce the doubt. I’ve watched on reddit.com as many people who identify themselves as dems are saying they are doing EXACTLY that, since they are no longer comfortable with Obama’s many disappointments as regards civil liberties and constitutional issues, and especially war.
So those numbers, not matching the earlier entrance poll, may be correct.
I’m just to the right of Attila the Hun. But………Ron Paul makes more sense than all of them combined. As for Obummer? Muslim, One-Worlder, dupe of his handlers.
The NY Times poll almost exactly mirrors the PPP poll results.
American Research Group now shows the same thing happening in NH where RP has taken over second place.
Most people who are aware of the evils of big government are also not going to trust the media. I’m sick at the thought of a career politician being the solution to the current admin’s deathgrip on America. That might be a solution for 4 or 8 years, but after that, every liberal assault on America becomes permanent. We need someone who will pro-actively assault the left, not “get along” with them or be a moderate. Moderation doesn’t work — it only prolongs the destruction of our way of life. We need the Lord to give us a fighter.
Newt loves illegals (amnesty) more than Americans (Newt wants to bring back child labor for US kids). Mitt thinks corporations are people (killing his general election chances). Ron Paul is the only candidate with a plan to end the TSA and end the endless wars for Israel, it all started a decade ago after a false flag attack.
9/11, US and Israel:
http://www.amazon.com/America-Deceived-II-Possession-interrogation/dp/1450257437
How about now that Insider Advantage has a poll out where Ron Paul has an even bigger lead? (24% to 18%) …
Considering Ron Paul’s great organization and the high level of commitment of his supporters – it seems quite possible to me that these polls are underestimating how well he will do.
Ron Paul is our best hope to restore the United States to a constitutional republic. Conservatives RALLY around the only patriotic choice. He is the Doctor to treat what Ails this once great republic.
My Congratulations to the Paul Camp. Those who don’t believe are trembling in their boots,at the thought that their gravy train may coming to an end! So scared they will do or say anything, to impede the progress of freedom. If you want to make a difference,take out your too big to fail credit card and max it out.Send the money to Paul 2012. Then don’t pay up and default!Make the big banks pay for our freedom. Ciao Baby!
I guess main stream media could only suppress the support of Ron Paul for so long before what he stands for seeped through to Americans / Republicans so they have someone they can really vote for other than another puppet president like O’Bama, or Bush, or Clinton or Bush… or they have been puppets for so long.
When Ron Paul wins Iowa only one thing will be certain and that is that the MSM is no longer relevant (contrary to what the MSM is floating, which is that Iowa will no longer be relevant).
There are a fistful of days to to get out the vote and Iowans could care less about political power trips. Now is the season to concentrate on things that really matter..spending time with the ones you love and helping your fellow man where you can.
In other news, your blog banner makes me smile every time I see it…nice work\ :)
“Refudiate?”