Unlikely Voter

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Today’s Twitter talk is focusing on the March 1 debate in Georgia, but the Arizona and Michigan primaries come two days before then.

And it’s looking good for Rick Santorum over Mitt Romney, even in Michigan, the state that was Romney’s big win last time, and where George Romney was once Governor.

The last 5 Michigan polls, end dates ranging from the 12th to the 14th, all show Santorum ahead. The leads vary, as each candidate shows about a 9 point range in his support, but that’s the kind of variability we might expect with Margins of Error ranging from 3.5 to 4.9.

The median support level for each candidate though is Santorum 38.5 (34-43), Romney 28.5 (24-33). Santorum’s low end is above Romney’s high end. The probability that Romney’s ahead right now is infinitesimal.

Arizona awards only one fewer delegate than Michigan, but it hasn’t been polled since 2/1. We could be in for a surprise there.