I went way out on a limb saying Ron Paul does not win the Iowa caucuses, even when he led a bunch of polls. I still say now that Ron Paul will underperform the polls because the turnout model is unrealistic.
Tonight we find out the truth.
[More]Conservative views on polls, science, technology, and policy
By Neil Stevens on January 3, 2012
I went way out on a limb saying Ron Paul does not win the Iowa caucuses, even when he led a bunch of polls. I still say now that Ron Paul will underperform the polls because the turnout model is unrealistic.
Tonight we find out the truth.
[More]