Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Senate Projection for November 1

And with my final survey of the House Generic polling done, it’s time to make my final survey of the Senate polling this year, now that it’s already election eve.

Last week the range of possibilities seemed to narrow. I expect that to continue, but let’s see.

Situation

Senate right now: 59 D-41 R.

Seats up right now: 19 D-18 R.

Seats therefore not up: 40 D-23 R.

Minimum result needed for majority: -9 for Democrats, +10 for Republicans.

Method

I’m going to work off the polls when they’re available, working from Real Clear Politics, giving double weight now to Likely Voter polls, and make guesses otherwise. That’s usually easy because the seats that aren’t polled are typically safe. Changes from last time will be in boldface.

Seats

AL: Richard Shelby: Lead has grown to +32 in Rasmussen. 99.9% R victory.

AK: Lisa Murkowski (primaried): I still think polling prompting for Murkowski by name is vastly overestimating her support as a write-in, but I go to war with the polls I have. Further, since Murkowski has confirmed she will remain a Republican, I will split this rating in two. 99.9% R victory, with 55% chance of Miller over Murkowski.

AZ: John McCain: This is getting lopsided. 99.9% R victory.

AR: Blanche Lincoln: John Boozman up 20+ in polling. 99.9% R victory.

CA: Barbara Boxer: Boxer collapses in PPP. 30% R victory from 25%.

CO: Michael Bennet: PPP continues to show Bennet closer to Buck than anyone else shows. 55% R victory.

CT: Chris Dodd (retiring): McMahon pushes back into high single digit deficit behind Blumenthal. 10% R victory from 5%.

DE: Joe Biden (resigned): Two new post primary polls show a split decisiong. 1% R victory.

FL: Mel Martinez (resigned): PPP says Rubio even locks up the two way matchup. 99% R victory from 95%.

GA: Johnny Isakson: Isakson rebounds in polling from one scare. 99% R victory.

HI: Daniel Inouye: Two new polls, but with mixed results. 0.1% R victory.

ID: Mike Crapo: Crapo lead hovering around 40. 99.9% R victory.

IL: Barack Obama (resigned): Eight in a row now for Kirk. 65% R victory.

IN: Evan Bayh (retiring): Dan Coats lead growing. 99% R victory.

IA: Chuck Grassley: Grassley rebounds from one bad poll. 99% R victory.

KS: Sam Brownback (retiring): Republican Jerry Moran showing leads in the 40s. 99.9% R victory.

KY: Jim Bunning (retiring): Paul’s surge in PPP joined by Rasmussen. 90% R victory from 85%.

LA: David Vitter: Vitter gets a bounce in Rasmussen. 95% R victory.

MD: Barbara Mikulski: Mikulski’s primary opponent’s internal even has her ahead. 0.1% R victory.

MO: Kit Bond (retiring): Blunt marching on from one bad poll I didn’t trust anyway. 85% R victory.

NV: Harry Reid: 8 in a row for Angle now. 60% R victory from 55%.

NC: Richard Burr: PPP even has this at Burr +13 now. 99% R victory.

ND: Byron Dorgan (retiring): John Hoeven leads by so much he breaks the graphics in my analysis tool. 99.9% R victory.

NH: Judd Gregg (retiring): Hodes has never led this race. 95% R victory from 85%.

NY: Chuck Schumer: Schumer hovering around 60. 0.1% R victory.

NY: Kirsten Gillibrand: The party’s over for the NY GOP. 1% R victory.

OH: George Voinovich (retiring): Fisher literally gave up and gave away his remaining warchest. 99.9% R victory from 99%.

OK: Tom Coburn: Coburn lead approaching 40. 99.9% R victory.

OR: Ron Wyden: Mixed results in final polls: Good for Wyden, or Very Very Good for Wyden. 1% R victory.

PA: Arlen Specter (primaried): RCP again shows eight in a row for Toomey. Eleven of 12 for him as well, with the last being a tie. 75% R victory from 55%.

SC: Jim DeMint: A poll did come out. It’s not good for Alvin Greene and his felony indictment. 99.9% R victory.

SD: John Thune: Unopposed. 100% R victory.

UT: Bob Bennett (primaried): Deseret News confirms Rasmussen polling. 99.9% R victory.

VT: Patrick Leahy: Leahy lead down to 30. 0.1% R victory.

WA: Patty Murray: Last five polls include Murray -2, -1, Tie, Rossi +1, +2. 50% R victory from 40%.

WV: Robert Byrd (died): One shotgun blast turned this race. 25% R victory from 45%.

WI: Russ Feingold: Ron Johnson has a bad poll.. in which he still leads. 80% R victory.

The simulation

100,000 trials using the probabilities above.

Results

Big GOP bounce this week. It’s once again for the Republicans a 7 seat gain projected, but it nearly hit 8. In third place is 6, with that range accounting for 69% (68,992) of the curve. The GOP majority chances rose as well from 3% to 5% (4,757). No trials gave Democrats a gain, and 9 of 100,000 left the Senate where it stands.

It shows how much the battle lines have hardened that a big week for Republicans barely moved the majority chances. It’s all coming down to the same battleground: CA, WA, WV, IL, and NV.

If forced to a specific prediction though, personally and not with my modeling alone: I will go on the limb to say that Republicans hold all seats they have up, plus gain AR, CO, IL, IN, NV, ND, PA, and WI for 8 seats.

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Comments

One Response to “Senate Projection for November 1”

  1. Jim Coburn says:

    On Saturday, I received a robo call from “Robert”, a “Republican”, calling on behalf of the Patriot Majority PAC (i.e. Dingy Harry). He inferred that Congressman Dean Heller supported Harry Reid.

    I emailed and called Heller’s office but didn’t receive a response until this morning. Heller’s office called this morning to assure that Heller, in fact, supports Sharron Angle.

    I checked Heller’s website, http://www.deanheller.com, and found the following blog:

    Truth About Robo Calls From Allies Of Harry Reid

    Posted by: Dean Heller in 2010 Election on October 31, 2010 Print

    Recently, a news article implied that I believe Harry Reid’s defeat would be bad for the state of Nevada. Subsequently, this article was used as the basis for a robo call paid for by supporters of Harry Reid.

    Let me assure you that nothing is farther from the truth. I support Sharron Angle — period.

    Under Reid and Pelosi, government has become more intrusive, our national debt has gotten bigger, and economic recovery has been stifled.

    With federal spending out of control and our economy struggling, we need people in Congress who believe in smaller government, capitalism, and free markets. This is why I believe that Sharron Angle will not only be good for Nevada, but our nation as well.

    Let me assure you that I am behind Sharron Angle 100% and have been a supporter of hers since she became the Republican nominee for Senate.

    As with many Americans I will be watching with great anticipation on Election Day.

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