Unlikely Voter

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Republican Chris Dudley led the whole way in the Oregon Governor’s race from May to August in the polling, and led two of three polls in September, but now as October hits, Democrat John Kitzhaber can claim to have taken two of the last four polls.

I wouldn’t suggest that Dudley’s supporters panic or that Kitzhaber measuring for drapes, but I find the new Rasmussen poll to be noteworthy.

Kitzhaber 48-Dudley 46 (MoE 4) is the top line here, and since Rasmussen is now hiding everything else behind a paywall, we really can’t dig in to see if there’s anything to it there, or if it’s some sort of wacko outlier.

Yes, I’m a bit frustrated that Rasmussen is hiding now everything about its polls, whereas before we’d at least get some data. I’m not going to pay them money to do the research to see if their polls look realistic. That burden is on Rasmussen to prove the worth of the polls.

But, the polls looked fine for most of this cycle, so I’m not about to start throwing them out just because of this sudden change in business model. So frustration aside, I highlight this poll as noteworthy.