The Florida primaries are today, but I’m not posting on them today. That way I have time to address – by popular demand* – all the new generic ballot polls, and see where the Swingometer is landing lately.
As always, I’m using the trusty Real Clear Politics archives to find the polls. So let’s go.
There are many polls to look at here. This month we’ve had seven of them. Two of them polled likely voters, and five polled registered voters. I look forward to PPP’s shift to LVs, but we’ll see that next time.
In fact, there are so many polls that I’m not going to give a detailed writeup of each. What I will do is process each individually in one big, honking table, and then average them. It will be a weighted average. Polls of likely voters (Time and Rasmussen Reports) will get a double weighting.
| Two party splits | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Filter | D | R | Swing |
| 2008 | Actual | 56 | 44 | – |
| Gallup 8/22 | RV | 48 | 52 | R+16 |
| Rasmussen 8/22 | LV | 45 | 55 | R+22 |
| Time 8/17 | LV | 46 | 54 | R+20 |
| AP/GfK 8/16 | RV | 48 | 52 | R+16 |
| Fox 8/11 | RV | 46 | 54 | R+20 |
| CNN/OR 8/10 | RV | 48 | 52 | R+16 |
| PPP 8/9 | RV | 48 | 52 | R+16 |
So, taking the weighted average, the mean swing is 18.7. It almost feels silly to go to all that trouble of weighting the polls when anyone could have eyeballed that figure anyway, thanks to every single poll giving Republicans a lead within that band of +4 to +10 in the two party splits.
Regardless, we take that 18.7, put it into the Swingometer, and the result is… Republicans gain 52 seats from 2008’s results for a 230 R-205 D House majority, a larger win for John Boehner than either of Nancy Pelosi’s (and in fact exactly equal to her D+31 2006 and D+21 2008 wins combined), and slightly smaller than Newt Gingrich’s R+54 of 1994. (Historical figures per Wikipedia because I’m not basing anything on these numbers).
* Two or three people might not sound like a popular movement, but it still matters to me as UnlikelyVoter.com is still young, small, and growing.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
This Swingometer result sounds fairly plausible to me, based on the political climate out there, but I think we may be able to top Newt’s 54 seat gain by the time November rolls around.
I agree with Jake but I think we are looking at a 1966 swing. more ideological than the 1994 victory. I’m thinking 60-66 in the House and seven to eight Senate.
Good point, Brad. I hadn’t thought of 1966 as an example, but I think you could be right.
Sorry, I meant patrick. Got my names mixed up as I was reading the comments.
Great site…one comment tho, would it be possible to run the swing o meter off the 2006 polling, or better yet an average of the last few off year elections? I suspect that all things being equal, we would outperform these results based upon the change in the make up of the electorate.
That’s not a bad idea at all.
Majority Maker: CT-04
The fourth district of Connecticut is in play in 2010. The district was the last New England district to have a Republican representative. In 2008, Democrat Jim Himes was able to squeak by incumbent Republican Chris Shays in large part due to a surge in newly registered Democrat voters in Bridgeport who turned out to support Barack Obama. If historical voting patterns return in 2010, then Himes will be in trouble.
Himes is a vulnerable incumbent who has not earned re-election. The Cook Political Report lists incumbents by risk factors from zero to five. According to Cook, “even Democrats with just three risk factors could find themselves in serious political risk in 2010”. Himes has five risk factors – he supported the unpopular cap and trade bill, he supported Obamacare, his district leans Democrat only slightly, his opponent has over $200 k in cash, and he received under 55% in his last election (in fact, only 51%).
Debicella is a worthy candidate who could benefit from a strong year for Republican challengers. If 2010 is a normal election year, Himes could be in trouble. If 2010 is a good year for Republicans, then Dan Debicella could be a new majority maker. That being said, Himes sits on powerful committees and he is well funded by the companies that he oversees. Himes has spread around a lot of taxpayer money and will be able to raise a lot of money in return. Anyone interested in an effective way to level the playing field can do so here: https://debicella.blue-swarm.com/donate/ . Dan is a reformer in the mold of Paul Ryan. He is an effective advocate for the values of free enterprise and individual liberty who would well serve Fairfield County in Washington.