Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Fisher fading in Ohio

By on August 17, 2010

Fisher fading in Ohio

According to Rasmussen’s latest, Rob Portman is holding a steady level of support in the Ohio Senate race. However the surge of support that Lee Fisher took after his primary win seems to be receding, which leaves Portman alone on top with a clear lead.

In this first Rasmussen poll of Ohio with “leaners” included, Portman leads 45-37 (MoE 4), giving the Republican a clear 84% chance of being ahead in my model. This is a very good poll for him, and clearly a terrible one for Fisher.

Fisher has never polled so low in Rasmussen. It may be he will recover in a couple of weeks, as this could have been a fluky result for him. But on the other hand Portman has a huge cash advantage, and should his campaign get on the air and go negative on Fisher, it may be Fisher will not recover.

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