Up and down, up and down, that’s the story of Richard Burr’s fight against challenger Elaine Marshall. I’m sure he’s much happier to lead than to trail but when he keeps hanging in the mid-40s, and Marshall keeps hanging around in the upper 30s, he’s in a position where he could be knocked off.
Civitas has a new poll out and the story still hasn’t changed.
The raw numbers: Burr 44, Marshall 37 (Margin of Error 4). Dig beyond that and we see Burr’s core issue: He’s not especially well liked, managing only a 34/29 favorable/unfavorable split, shrinking to 33/29 among those most confident they will vote.
Marshall on the other hand, is still fairly unknown. 31% are not aware of her, and another 31% have no opinion of her at all. She does have a 24-14 advantage among the rest, but 62% of the likely voters being in the air is huge. I think that leaves this race at an unstable point. How she becomes defined in the minds of the voters just might decide it.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
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