Wow. Just when I thought both Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports were both showing Richard Burr in good shape, Rasmussen shows his lead down to a single point.
What happened?
Seriously, I’d love for someone closely following the race to tell me why Burr would go from leads of 18, 8, and 14 in the Rasmussen poll, down to a 44-43 lead (MoE 4.5). Rasmussen suggests Marshall is getting a unity bounce after winning her party’s primary, but it seems to me that more than that is happening here.
I can see a unity bounce for the Democrats bringing Marshall from 36 to 43, but how does that drop Burr from 50 to 44? PPACA repeal is favored 60-33. Is Burr not speaking up strongly enough for repeal to gain support from that group. Rasmussen points out that Marshall gets 86% of those who favor the bill, but Burr only gets 69% of its opponents.
I can’t help but wonder though if there’s a local issues I simply know nothing about, and wouldn’t necessarily be noticed by a national pollster. Please, send me a note, leave a comment, anything if you know why this could be.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
As of right now, I assume it is nothing more than a post-Primary ‘bounce’. If polls are still showing the same picture a month from now – *then* I’ll start worrying (see: Crist in FL)…
Neil –
No big issues or under the radar stuff going on down here. As a matter of fact, a big Dem fundraiser got put in jail just last week, and of course we had the Bob Etheridge thuggery, so trends really should be the other way around.
Post primary bounce IMO, not to worry – yet. Having said that, NC is solid blue in the legislature and governorship, and it doesn’t seem to matter how many of them get carted off to jail. Wait and see.