Unlikely Voter

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SurveyUSA polled North Carolina’s second House district for the Civitas Institute.

Presumably the idea here is to check on how Bob Etheridge, incumbent Democrat, is doing after an ambush video went a bit poorly for him.

Unfortunately I’m about ready to throw away this poll as useless. This poll also features Libertarian Tom Rose, and he pulls 13% to Etheridge’s 38, and Republican Renee Elmers’s 39 (MoE 4.2). That libertarian seems to skew the whole result a great deal, as the Libertarian voters are less likely to vote at all than the Elmers and Etheridge voters according to the poll.

SurveyUSA asks people on a scale of 1-10 how likely they are to vote, with 10 being most likely. Ellmers peaks at 9 and pulls in 41% at 10. Etheridge peaks at 5 and pulls in 40$ at 10. Rose peaks at “6-8” and only pulls in 11% at 10.

So, all I can pull out of this poll is that it’s close, becuase I think it highly unlikely that a Libertarian will suddenly pull 10% in a district where the Libertarian pulled under 2% last time, to Etheridge’s 67 and the Republican’s 31. So, Etheridge is facing more of a threat this year than last time, even if he could pull in every Libertarian in this poll.