Unlikely Voter

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Maine still has does not have a runoff primary ahead but so Rasmussen took a look at the general election matchup anyway.

In general I’m giving the recently passed races a little more time, and probably next week you’ll see me again talking about California, Nevada, and other states from last week. But not having covered Maine yet, here’s a first look for us.

Instead of carpet bombing the general, Rasmussen took the top vote getters in the first round: Republican Paul LePage and Democrat Libby Mitchell, as well as announced independent Eliot Cutler. Cutler previously served in the Carter administration and worked in the Senate office of Democrat Ed Muskie, so barring a radical change of views I expect him to appeal more to Democrats than to Republicans.

And sure enough, LePage seems to benefit, leading at 43 over Mitchell’s 36 and Cutler’s 7, MoE 4.5. As-is, the poll gives LePage a 78% chance of a having a true lead. However if all of Cutler’s support had gone to Mitchell the race would be tied.

Will Cutler be a spoiler in Maine this year? Could be, could be.