Unlikely Voter

Tweet

Rasmussen has carpet bombed the Rhode Island race for Governor, producing a breathtaking array of numbers to look at.

I’ll do my best to make sense of it all, even if a carpet bombed three way race is about my worst case scenario for clarity.

With two Democrats (Patrick Lynch and Frank Caprio), two Republicans (John Robitaille and Victor Moffitt) and independent Linc Chafee, Rasmussen has four matchups for us to enjoy.

The Republicans seem to perform similarly. Robitaille draws 29 against Lynch and 25 against Caprio, while Moffitt draws 28 against Lynch and 22 against Caprio. Neither Republican leads in any scenario, with both finishing second against Lynch and third against Caprio.

Obviously knowing that, Caprio runs well ahead of Lynch in the general at this point. Caprio outperforms lynch 32-19 against Robitaille and 35-24 against Moffitt.

Chafee, meanwhile, seems to do fine regardless of the two parties, with support levels staying in a narrow band of 33-37. A first glance makes me think he’s maintained personal popularity with the center left even though his party switch has probably undermined his old Republican base.

And sure enough, it appears that some people still love Linc. He boasts a 27% Very Favorable rating, by far tops among the 5 candidates, which balances out his 26% Very Unfavorable rating. That 26 is second only to Lynch’s 28%, with the other three candidates in single digits.

I suppose in a three way race, you can afford to lose a quarter of the electorate.