Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Posts Tagged ‘ Sarah Palin ’

By request I’m taking a look at a new poll of California Republicans by Probolsky Research. It shares problems I’m seeing in many early Presidential polls, but I am surprised at one finding that may be bad news for Mitt Romney.

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As I’ve not been shy about saying, I have an emotional attachment to the California Senate race. I live here, I’ve always lived here, and in fact Democrat Barbara Boxer was first elected to the Senate when I was first beginning to follow politics, back when I was 14 years old.

So I knew the television ad campaigns would make or break the race for Republican Carly Fiorina, and sure enough, we’re now seeing a tightening trend in the polling.

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Once again, it looks like endorsements are driving a primary. John Oxendine had taken to the air in Georgia and regained a decent lead (or as decent as you’ll get in a huge multi-way affair*), but now that Newt Gingrich endorsed Nathan Deal and Sarah Palin endorsed Karen Handel, the Ox is back in third.

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Two polls on the California Senate Republican primary caught my attention today. I’ve been holding off posting on this race with my poll analysis hat on, because I wasn’t sure I could trust myself to be even handed enough.

But these two polls, coming as they are 15 days before election day, are interesting enough that I have to try. They could hardly be more different.

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Political campaigns announce endorsements all of the time. Most don’t move the needle in big time statewide or national elections.

But in the race for the Republican nomination for Governor of South Carolina, one endorsement seems to have made all the difference.

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I know my model doesn’t handle multi-way races, but I thought this poll was fascinating. 21st Century Trending polled likely primary voters and caucus goers in 30 states, and found some novel results for the 2012 election.

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