Unlikely Voter

It’s technically Tuesday morning early as I write this, but I’m going to use the polls released on Monday, so this will be filed as this Monday’s projection update, as always built with generic ballot polls from Real Clear Politics.

Last week the Republicans fell off from historic gains to a result with a small majority. Let’s see if the trend continues on down or not.

In an open and credited aping of the Greenberg Quinlan Rosner House battleground polls, Public Opinion Strategies has conducted a massive Senate battleground poll.

Politico has for us the summary and 150 pages of gory, numerical details. I’m going to see what sense I can make of it.

NPR had a poll done of what they call the 60 most competitive House seats held by Democrathttp://unlikelyvoter.com/wp-admin/options-media.phps, as well as the 10 most competitive held by Republicans. However the poll wasn’t done seat by seat, but rather in three groups: The top 30 of the Democrats, the bottom 30 of the Democrats, and the 10 Republicans.

Let’s see just how far each group is swinging compared with 2008, and try to guess what that means for the country.

According to an internal poll of Mick Mulvaney’s discovered by National Journal, the South Carolina Republican has gained 11 points on 14 term Democrat John Spratt of the 5th district.

If the Chairman of the Budget Committee can’t use his seniority to keep his seat safe, then I would expect to see a wave nationwide.