Plug -2.8 into the Swingometer and you’ll see 5 districts swing. Louisiana’s second district was the fifth closest seat won by a Republican in 2008, and that Republican was Joseph Cao. He beat William Jefferson, the now-convicted felon who received bribes and kept the cash hidden in his freezer.
By election day Jefferson had already been caught, and the money had already been found. Why was the election so close? Incumbency matters.
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House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer