I know my model doesn’t handle multi-way races, but I thought this poll was fascinating. 21st Century Trending polled likely primary voters and caucus goers in 30 states, and found some novel results for the 2012 election.
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21st Century Trending: Surprising Early Favorites in 2012
By Neil Stevens on April 1, 2010
Yes, the Obama-Antichrist poll was that bad
By Neil Stevens on March 24, 2010
Bad polling discredits good polling
By Neil Stevens on March 23, 2010
“Lies, damn lies, and statistics.” “You can use a poll to prove anything.” We all hear the lines like these, which reflect the popular view of statistical analysis and opinion polling. Nobody believes it. It’s all made up, says the conventional wisdom, or at least doctored to a degree that it can’t be trusted.
It’s not actually so bad at all, but it’s hard to make that case when people like the Daily Beast’s John Avlon undermine the field with examples like these.
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