Unlikely Voter

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I know my model doesn’t handle multi-way races, but I thought this poll was fascinating. 21st Century Trending polled likely primary voters and caucus goers in 30 states, and found some novel results for the 2012 election.

Obviously most Republicans and Democrats are focused on November, so 21c made up its own list of candidates for the 2012 nominations in its massive poll, with an MoE ranging from 2.8 to 3.4 depending on the state and party.

For the Republicans, it found that Joseph Cao would be a frontrunner if he ran, taking big leads against any slate of candidates. The only other standout was Sarah Palin, who was able to beat everyone but Cao.

For the Democrats, Barack Obama of course showed fantastic leads against most candidates, but one option was able to edge him out in a delegate race even closer than Obama/Clinton: Jerry Brown. The Governor would win big in California and neighboring states, giving him a sizable competitive advantage over the President, who faces discontent from anti-war groups over Pakistan, and PETA over his pet dog, Bo.

Here is a link to the massive PDF.