Unlikely Voter

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With Darrell Issa retiring in California, sixteen candidates are on the ballot today fighting to see who will be the top two to advance to November. Hollywood reality TV comes to San Diego county politics.

The 49th District is primarily in northern San Diego county, including the city of Oceanside, but it also straddles the county line, reaching into Orange County to the north. San Diego and Orange are of course the most Republican-friendly large counties in the state, with Orange County in particular being well known for a traditional small-government, Don’t-Tread-On-Me conservative libertarianism, aptly led by the Orange County Register editorial line.

The 49th district in particular also includes Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, one of the major Marine Corps bases, and the home of Marine Corps Recruit Depot San Diego, better known as the west coast boot camp. That adds to the unique flavor of the district, as anyone who wins there needs to be able to reach out to the Marine family population in the district.

All that said, Democrats see themselves as having a great opportunity to flip the 49th district. Donald Trump lost Orange County in 2016 as his big-government populist message tuned for the upper midwest flopped hard.

Of the candidates running, there are four Republicans and four Democrats seen as the most credible contenders to make it out of the June 5 jungle primary. Together, they have spent 15.3 million dollars, making it one of the most expensive House primaries ever. That’s how hungry the Democrats and Republicans are, because this seat is a core battleground for 2018 and could swing the majority.

Issa himself barely hung on in the Trump storm, winning versus Democrat Doug Applegate 50.3-49.7, about 1600 votes, in 2016. This may be a key reason he’s chosen to retire this year. This is a reason that open seats are more competitive: incumbents sometimes retire rather than fight hard for re-election. Before Trump he tended to win going away: 60-40 in 2014, 58-42 in 2012.

So these are the keys to the race:

• Can the Democrats and Republicans avoid splitting their votes so badly, that one party gets both of the top two seats? This is a jungle primary. The top two vote getters, regardless of party affiliation, will advance to November. Four major Democrats could easily split at 13% each, while four major Republicans plus four minor Republicans could do even worse.
• Is this a referendum on Donald Trump, or a referendum on Darrell Issa? Issa has opposed Trump on key policies, including the partial repeal of the State And Local Tax deduction, and Trump isn’t even on the ballot.
• Will this be a wave election, in which Democrat turnout is magnified, while Republican turnout is depressed?

The last point may be most important. If the votes for Democrats end up above the total votes for Republicans, then the Republicans are definitely at risk of losing the seat. But if this election reverts back to the old normal, without Trump on the ballot, then Republicans will have very little to worry about here in November.