As we wait for final and eventually certified counts to trickle in for the House races, and even wait for winners in two Senate races, it’s too soon to start digging in and finding out what we can about the polling this year.
I am concerned about just how wrong the polling was universally in several states, though, and am trying to research a possible angle (heh) on that.
Let’s call this an open thread if anyone has questions I might be able to answer.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
Just wanted to say thank you. I have enjoyed your insightful analysis since I stumbled upon your swingometer during a Google search a few months back. I look forward to following your blog for the 2012 races.
I have been reflecting on this question since last night when it became clear that the predicted numbers were not going to materialize.
Until we get detailed exit polling and voter turn out demographics this is mere speculation. If you already have that or know of someone who has assembled it in a unified way I would appreciate a pointer.
So strictly on suspicion I’m expecting it to be two factors.
The likely voter screens drastically misjudged democrat (and their leaners) turnout. The impact of early and by mail voting and the effectiveness of the democrat and their outside assistants ground game. Which in some sense are the different aspects of the same thing.
What do you think? Is there any data that suggests this might be the source of the error?
I have a lead. I’m running down the numbers and if I can confirm it, I’ll post in great detail on it.
I don’t think it’s fraud or deception though, and not anything to do with LV screening, but rather a systemic failure in the core polling methodology.
Thanks Neil!
I was not suggesting fraud or deception, I assume good intentions on the part of all nationally recognized pollsters. I’m looking forward to your analysis.
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