Rasmussen Reports has two new polls out: one on the race for Governor between Democrat Jerry Brown and Republican Meg Whitman, and the other on the Senate race between Democrat Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina.
I don’t think the results they show are compatible. If one is right, I think the other is wrong.
When Rasmussen showed Boxer ahead of Fiorina by 5 with leaners, 49-44 (which isn’t a deterioration for Fiorina because without leaners she’s as close as she’s been in the Rasmussen poll, 44-43), Margin of Error 4, I wasn’t surprised. It still gives the Republican a one in four chance of being ahead per my calculations, but I don’t expect Fiorina to make any moves until later.
But after seeing that poll for Senate, the poll for Governor did surprise me. Whitman up 8 with and without leaners? Ahead 51-43 with? That’s not what I expected. While I show a 26% chance for Fiorina, I only find 16% for the former two-term Governor Brown Jr.
I’m not surprised that Whitman leads, though. I’m surprised because Whitman and Fiorina are showing such a wide swing between their results. I have a hard time buying that there will be a 13 point swing between them when the votes are counted in November. Despite the fact that they do hold opposing positions on abortion, they’re synchronized on key issues of the day such as the economy and marriage.
I just can’t believe that so many California voters will vote for Meg Whitman and then vote for Barbara Boxer. I suppose it is possible, particularly if abortion carries the day, but with unemployment where it is, I can’t imagine California’s election will turn on that issue.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
I think the main issue is illegal immigration – Whitman is pro-amnesty and has been trying to reach out to Hispanics, Fiorina takes a hard line.