The new Rasmussen Reports poll of Missouri suggests that with the clarity brought by the primaries, support is coalescing around Roy Blunt, and he appears to be running away from Robin Carnahan in the Senate race.
To think I once considered this seat a toss up, too.
I’d never call it a toss-up now though when, with leaners, Blunt leads Carnahan 54-41 (MoE 4), dropping Carnahan all the way down to a slim 6% chance of being ahead, per this poll.
In my last Senate projection I had Blunt all the way up to a 75% win probability, but if other LV polls start confirming this result, that could quickly jump up to a 90% or higher.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
I’m not all too surprised by this development. Barring some extraordinary change, either in the national political landscape or from a revelation/scandal in an individual campaign, I think we’ll be seeing a lot of these former toss-up races in the more conservative or conservative leaning states start leaning more towards the right as November gets closer. This includes the Senate races in Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania and the gubernatorial races in states like Texas and Georgia.
I think the true toss-ups will be the likes of California’s Senate and gubernatorial races, Washington’s Senate race, Illinois’ Senate race, and Wisconsin’s Senate race. These are states that typically lean to the left (and that’s an understatement in some cases), but in a year when the Democratic name brand is so bad, Republicans are getting the benefit of the doubt from enough of the electorate to make these seats competitive, if not winnable outright.