Here are a couple of quick hits of races we’ve covered recently: The Republican primary for the New Hampshire Senate race, and California general election for Governor.
PPP shows Kelly Ayotte still leading in New Hampshire over three Republican rivals. Binnie also appears to be climbing as Lamontagne falls far off the pace. Those Republicans who believe Lamontagne to be the “true conservative” will be disappointed, but those who see Ayotte as polling better in the general will be happy as Ayotte at 43 still has a 24 point lead over hear nearest primary opponent.
Rasmussen shows Jerry Brown regaining a lead against Meg Whitman in California. Rasmussen had showed a 40-40 tie last month, but Brown now leads 44-38 with the MoE of 4.5. That’s a pretty big shift, though I still show Whitman with a full 25% chance of being in the lead. So unless the trend continues, this race will still be much closer than I ever expected.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
FWIW, I don’t buy that Rasmussen CA poll – I think it’s a bad sample (though, it’s possible recent advertising has shifted the numbers – I just don’t think they’ve shifted *that* much!).
We’ll know for sure with next month’s poll…
There is always the 1/20 chance of a genuine outlier…