Unlikely Voter

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It’s slightly old but I know people are interested in this race, so an actual Rasmussen primary poll between Republicans JD Hayworth and John McCain.

McCain leads, but is he doing well?

McCain is running for his fifth term and since taking office he has not won a primary by less than 20 points, and has gone effectively uncontested by his own party before this cycle.

And yet now Rasmussen has come up with two consecutive polls showing Hayworth close to McCain. Last month McCain was up 48-41, with a Margin of Error of 4.5 This month it’s 47-42. That still shows a high likelihood that McCain’s ahead, 72% this month. It’s also a small amount of movement as it was 79% last month.

But for an incumbent Senator and his party’s most recent Presidential nominee, who has not seen a serious primary challenge since he succeeded Barry Goldwater as Senator, hovering under 50 with an opponent within 5 is a weak position to be in.

McCain is winning but he has a real fight on his hands.