Unlikely Voter

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In my first featured post at Unlikely Voter I illustrated how Marco Rubio went from being far, far behind Charlie Crist in the Republican Primary for the Florida Senate vacancy, to being the overwhelming favorite in the race.

Some wonder if Crist is taking this to heart and weighing and Independent run. Quinnipiac polled that scenario.

Now again, my modeling software doesn’t do three way races, but in the hypothetical matchup between Democrat Kendrick Meeks, Republican Marco Rubio, and hypothetical Independent Charlie Crist, Crist comes out slightly ahead. The tally is 32 Crist, 30 Rubio, 24 Meek,with a margin of error of 2.8.

Lacking my magical lead percentage figure, I’m looking at the crosstabs instead. Republicans back Rubio 64-30 over Crist, with Meek drawing 0. Democrats are what put Crist over the top, as they split 55 for Meeks, 27 for Crist, and 5 for Rubio.

I’d expect these numbers to change after an actual primary win or loss, though. If Crist lost many more Republicans at all due to being beaten by Rubio and actually leaving the party, then he falls behind even in this poll.

I would think his chances are better to wait for 2012 should he not close the gap with Rubio in this primary. That way he only takes on the Democrat and not also a Republican with a 2-1 edge on him.