Unlikely Voter

SurveyUSA polled North Carolina’s second House district for the Civitas Institute.

Presumably the idea here is to check on how Bob Etheridge, incumbent Democrat, is doing after an ambush video went a bit poorly for him.

SurveyUSA polled the Oregon race for Governor and interesting enough, has it as a three way race. Featured are Republican Chris Dudley (6’11” center out of Yale), Democrat John Kitzhaber, and Progressive Jerry Wilson.

By the name of the third party I think we all know what’s going to happen.

Today we have high profile races in South Carolina, Nevada, California, and Arkansas to look back on and see how well the pollsters’ numbers matched the actual results.

As I’m just one person who lacks the luxury of doing this site full time, I’m not ashamed to work off of Real Clear Politics to make these assessments.

Some have expected Republican Randal Paul to fall in the polls against Democrat Jack Conway since accusations emerged that he would have opposed the original Civil Rights Act. SurveyUSA’s poll for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS seems to confirm that expectation.

SurveyUSA brings us a comprehensive poll of the New Mexico Governor’s race. The Democrats are sure to nominate Diane Denish, but the Republicans appear to be deciding between Susana Martinez and Allen Weh.

The poll checked them in the primary and the general, so let’s see where things stand.

Having attended a speech of Nikki Haley’s in Atlanta last year, her run for Governor of South Carolina is one I’ve followed. Living here, I’ve also watched the California Senate race. Both situations seemed to be stable: Haley was stuck in fourth, while in California Tom Campbell was staying ahead of second place Carly Fiorina.

Then Sarah Palin intervened, and both Haley and Fiorina shot into first place in new polls. Now we have confirmation of both events. Sarah Palin carries respect in the Republican Party.

Two polls on the California Senate Republican primary caught my attention today. I’ve been holding off posting on this race with my poll analysis hat on, because I wasn’t sure I could trust myself to be even handed enough.

But these two polls, coming as they are 15 days before election day, are interesting enough that I have to try. They could hardly be more different.

Five men are seeking to be the Republican nominee in the Indiana Senate race to replace Evan Bayh. Three have a likely chance to win. From where is each getting his support?

By request I’ve looked up the race in Indiana’s 9th District, which appears like it’s going to be a fourth rematch between former Rep. Mike Sodrel and Rep. Baron Hill. Hill voted for the PPACA, so national Republicans are sure to target him in this usually-Republican state that barely went for President Obama in 2008.