Unlikely Voter

Public Policy Polling looked into the special election in Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional District, the seat vacated by the late Jack Murtha.

Do southerners do well in Presidential elections? Two of the last three Democrats to win were southern Governors, and the last two Republicans to win were Texans. That’s all some need to pencil in Rick Perry, two and a half term successor to George W. Bush, as a likely Republican nominee in 2012.

The latest from Rasmussen suggests his run for a third full term won’t be easy, though. The White vote could be an issue.

It’s slightly old but I know people are interested in this race, so an actual Rasmussen primary poll between Republicans JD Hayworth and John McCain.

McCain leads, but is he doing well?

I found today’s polls to be dull, so I wanted to do something I found fun and maybe even interesting this morning. I wrote a simple, very crude simulator to project the Senate results based on the Real Clear Politics race categories. RCP rates races Safe, Likely, or Leaning for one party or the other unless it’s a Toss Up.

Here’s what I found.

I don’t really think any of the newest polls I’m finding are particularly interesting, so I’ll just mention them all quickly and move on to something that hopefully is interesting.

In my first featured post at Unlikely Voter I illustrated how Marco Rubio went from being far, far behind Charlie Crist in the Republican Primary for the Florida Senate vacancy, to being the overwhelming favorite in the race.

Some wonder if Crist is taking this to heart and weighing and Independent run. Quinnipiac polled that scenario.

Rasmussen took a special poll of one particular matchup possibility in the 2012 Presidential race. He looked at Ron Paul against Barack Obama and, surprise, Paul runs very well, trailing the incumbent President 41-42.

How can this be, when Paul was rejected so soundly in the Republican primaries just two years ago? Reading the poll, I’m left to wonder if it was written and paid for by supporters of the Texas Republican.

Another Senate seat that Republicans would want to take for a shot at the majority is the one currently held by Kirsten Gillibrand, New York Democrat.

However with George Pataki declining to run against her, Democrats seem much more likely to hold the seat, judging by the latest from Quinnipiac.

If the Democrats want to regain a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate they have to win seats in their home turf, and that includes the New Hampshire seat of retiring Senator and Republican Judd Gregg.

Rasmussen carpet bombed this race, which fortunately only has three likely matchups.

I’ll probably regret posting this, but here is The Shirt™ I picked up of the Extended Bell Curve.

Here are a few polls that came out from later Friday to today that I don’t think deserve a full work-up, but are worth mentioning at least.

Should the Republicans get lucky and take the Senate in November, Patty Murray’s is the kind of seat they will have to win. Washington is friendly territory for Democrats and 2010 should be no exception. However, a poll from late Friday suggests that she may be vulnerable to Dino Rossi and only to the former candidate for Governor.

More confusion is ahead as we look at Rasmussen’s latest treatment of the Colorado Senate race.