Unlikely Voter

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Candidates matter, and while Dave Westlake polled way behind Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin, it looks like Ron Johnson has a real shot against Russ Feingold.

In my estimation, the Republicans stand only a few competitive seats away from having a real shot at the Senate majority, so news like this is significant.

So when the convention-endorsed and likely Republican nominee Ron Johnson takes the slimmest of leads over Russ Feingold – 47-46 (MoE 4.5 per Rasmussen Reports) – that news is most significant. Sure, there’s a 46% chance per this poll that Feingold is still on top, but my understanding is that Johnson has the money to press Feingold all the way to November without needing national organizations to divert funds his way.

So this isn’t a mirage. Johnson can sustain this without getting swamped by a cash advantage later. He just needs now to ensure he can connect with the voters of the state as Feingold has apparently done in his previous victories.