Sestak closing, says Quinnipiac

The last time Quinnipiac Uniersity covered the Pennsylvania Senate race, the result was right in the middle of the pack, and inline with every poll from mid-July to early October: a seven point lead for Republican Pat Toomey over Democrat Joe Sestak.

But now, just as PPP came out with its shocking Sestak lead, Q says the race is close.

48-46 Toomey isn’t nearly as surprising as the PPP lead we saw, but it’s still the mark of a closer race. I suspect this one is closer to accurate, though as always more polling will confirm or deny it.

With a Margin of Error of 3, if other polls followed this trend, we’d see this race drop all the way to a 65% Republican win probability in my projections. Still good for Toomey, but well off from that 85% I believe I had him at for a while.

For all the states and races we’ve seen the Democrats give up on, there had to be some race, somewhere, where their spending would make a positive difference for them. Pennsylvania appears to be it, especially since the Governor’s race appears to be closing as well.