Roy Blunt running away in Missouri

The new Rasmussen Reports poll of Missouri suggests that with the clarity brought by the primaries, support is coalescing around Roy Blunt, and he appears to be running away from Robin Carnahan in the Senate race.

To think I once considered this seat a toss up, too.

I’d never call it a toss-up now though when, with leaners, Blunt leads Carnahan 54-41 (MoE 4), dropping Carnahan all the way down to a slim 6% chance of being ahead, per this poll.

In my last Senate projection I had Blunt all the way up to a 75% win probability, but if other LV polls start confirming this result, that could quickly jump up to a 90% or higher.