Final look at Florida

Despite a rash of independents and party switches in Florida, tomorrow there are still two meaningful primaries at the top of the ticket. For the Democrats, tomorrow they choose between Bill Clinton-backed Kendrick Meek, and wealthy challenger Jeff Greene for a Senate candidate. Republicans have to decide on a candidate for Governor between former Impeachment star Bill McCollum and wealthy challenger Rick Scott.

With one day to go, let’s check where the polls say both races are headed.

Except for Rasmussen Reports, who rarely dips into the primary waters, we’ve got a good mix of pollsters hitting Florida at the end, all focusing on likely voters. PPP’s poll ended on the 22nd, Mason Dixon’s on the 19th, and Quinnipiac’s on the 16th. That’s as far back as I’ll go for last minute polling.

For the Democrats, the race seems to have settled down. Greene made a real challenge, but Democrats seem to have consolidated around Meek, as Meek leads by 7, 12, and 24 in the last three polls. I don’t think his lead is growing exponentially, but that trend is hard to ignore.

We get no such clear trend on the Republican side [link fixed], though. This race has been hit by late-breaking news of a lawsuit against Scott, and McCollum has milked the story. As a result, he got a serious jump, this month taking his first polling lead since May.

But it appears Scott isn’t finished yet, as those last three polls are mixed: McCollum +9, McCollum +9, and finally PPP shows up with Scott +7. As erratic as primary polling has been this year, I’m not prepared to draw conclusions from this, except that the Republican side is close. So Republicans had best get out and vote in Florida tomorrow, because one vote just might matter.