Handel alone in first in a messy race

As we cross past midnight in Georgia, it becomes primary election day in that state. So let’s look at one more poll of the Republican side of the Governor’s race. There’s almost certainly going to be a primary runoff, but with three credible candidates and two spots, somebody’s going to be left out when the music stops.

According to Mason Dixon the one left out will be Nathan Deal.

Yes yes, we just saw a poll with Deal tied for first, but now Mason Dixon for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says Deal’s in third. Just random noise? Genuine movement in an unstable multi-way race with several also-rans? We have no way of knowing.

But here’s what the poll says: Karen Handel leads at 29, John Oxendine is in second at 22, and Deal is just out of the runoff at 20 (MoE 5). With a Margin of Error that large, it’s nearly a coin flip between Oxendine and Deal for who’s really ahead of the other (57/43 Ox/Deal, per my model), so now we’re piling caveats on caveats.

But, in a multi-way race with no clear frontrunner, that’s all we’re ever going to do until the ballots are counted. We should count ourselves lucky we only have three candidates likely to make the runoff, honestly.