Poll shows Democrats ahead in Ohio

The University of Cincinnati is very proud of its Ohio Poll branding, and the new version is out. It’s an interesting blend of a poll in that it asks all adults some questions, then filters to likely voters and asks them other questions.

Ohio adults approve of Ted Strickland’s performance as Governor 55-35 (MoE 3.3), however when we narrow to the economy, it’s down to a 46-46 tie. It’d be interesting to see what UofC’s likely voters think of that… but they don’t tell us. They only tell us that likely voters favor Strickland over John Kasich 49-44 (MoE 3.8).

So we know that, per this poll, Strickland has a 75% lead probability over Kasich, but we don’t have a direct comparison with how voters are weighing Strickland’s economic performance in office. How useless then to ask about his job approval to begin with.

Over on the Senate side it’s an open seat, so we have no incumbent to waste time asking non-voters about. That leaves us free to jump straight to the meat: Lee Fisher is very nearly tied with Rob Portman 47-46, giving the Democrat only a 55% lead probability.

For those wondering if Barack Obama’s winning the state will help Democrats gain on these advantages, Ohio adults disfavor his overall job approval 49-46 and his economic performance 51-44. That 51 is one of the only figures above 50 showing up in this poll. Chalk that up as one more reason to expect Republicans to have room to keep these races winnable.