Simulating the Senate election via Cook

Building on the work I did on the House races, let’s see what the latest Cook Political Report ratings suggest for the Senate elections in November.

As before, I’m treading Toss-Ups as 50/50 shots, Lean R/D as 90% for the party, Likely R/D as 99% for the party, and Solid as 100%. Given that every single call from 2008 went for the party, and the toss ups went 60/40, the best I can do is work off of the conservative House percentages.

So I ran the usually 10,000 simulated elections using the latest Cook estimates. The result is that the early, conservative Cook estimate is a three seat Republican gain. Republicans need 10 for a majority, 9 for a tie that the Vice President would break for the Democrats.

For reference, in May 2008, Cook’s numbers had Democrats at +4, when of course they ended up +8. As with the House, Cook’s conservatism holds him back before the primaries, when we should expect a larger shift predicted.