Today we have high profile races in South Carolina, Nevada, California, and Arkansas to look back on and see how well the pollsters’ numbers matched the actual results.

As I’m just one person who lacks the luxury of doing this site full time, I’m not ashamed to work off of Real Clear Politics to make these assessments.

First up, the Arkansas Senate runoff between Blanche Lincoln and Bill Halter. Last time around, both Mason Dixon and Research 2000/Daily Kos widely overestimated Lincoln’s margin of victory. But for the runoff M-D didn’t show, and R2k was the only pollster in.

Sadly for them, they projected Halter the winner by 4 points, 49-45, or subtracting the undecideds, 52-48 for Halter. The actual result was the opposite: Lincoln wins 52-48. Off by an 8 point swing and projecting the wrong winner is about as wrong as you can be.

Moving on, we look in at California. Three polls came out election week for the California Republican Senate primary. We ignore the Democrats because Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown were effectively unopposed. The actual Senate results? Fiorina 56, Campbell 22, DeVore 19.

Field Poll was good and bad, getting Campbell and DeVore exactly right, but blowing all of that by undershooting Fiorina by 19 points. It’s hard to score that as a clear win for Field.

Magellan Strategies I’d say gets a win. At Fiorina 54-Campbell 19-DeVore 16, the margins are almost exactly correct, as are the proportions.

SurveyUSA suffered a milder version of the Field Poll syndrome: Campbell and DeVore close, Fiorina way off. Again, hard to say they got it right when they missed the winner’s margin by a mile.

Now we shift to the Republican race for Governor in California. The final tally had Meg Whitman over Steve Poizner 64-27.

Again Field misses the winner’s margin substantially, understating Whitman’s result by 13 points while only missing Poizner by 2. SurveyUSA had an outright shift toward Poizner: 59-30. Magellan again got closest: Nailing Whitman’s total down but understating Poizner by 5.

Harry Reid is unopposed to my knowledge, so we turn only to the Republican side of the Nevada Senate Primary. actual results: Sharron Angle 40, Sue Lowden 26, Danny Tarkanian 23.

We begin to see a trend. Suffolk University, one of the big winners in the Pennsylvania primary, underestimates the winner’s momentum with Angle 33, Tarkanian 26, Lowden 25. It’s hard to say that’s really close to the actual result. And since both Research 2000 and Mason-Dixon had similar findings, I’ll say everyone lost in this race.

Republicans also had a race for Governor in Nevada, which was won by Brian Sandoval over the incumbent Governor Jim Gibbons 56-27. And again, both Suffolk and Mason-Dixon underestimated the winner by 9 points.

And finally we have the South Carolina Governor’s race. PPP skipped the Democrats in the last poll, so we only have their June look at the Republican side to grade. The actual result was Haley 49, Barrett 22, McMaster 17, Bauer 12. And PPP had Haley 43, Barrett 23, McMaster 16, Bauer 12. That’s pretty impressive I’d say, despite yesterday’s trend of the winners overshooting the polling estimates.

To sum up: Research 2000 botched another primary for the Democrats. Magellan Strategies impressed in California. Public Policy Polling and SurveyUSA were solid. Field missed a golden opportunity. Suffolk and Mason-Dixon faded. Rasmussen Reports didn’t show up.

Are primaries really that hard?

Possibly Related Posts

• May 25, 2010 -- Palin shapes two races
• April 16, 2010 -- Quick hits for Friday
• April 5, 2010 -- USC/LA Times poll of California races

Having attended a speech of Nikki Haley’s in Atlanta last year, her run for Governor of South Carolina is one I’ve followed. Living here, I’ve also watched the California Senate race. Both situations seemed to be stable: Haley was stuck in fourth, while in California Tom Campbell was staying ahead of second place Carly Fiorina.

Then Sarah Palin intervened, and both Haley and Fiorina shot into first place in new polls. Now we have confirmation of both events. Sarah Palin carries respect in the Republican Party.

Public Policy Polling checked both primaries. In South Carolina, they show Haley running away at 39, ahead of Henry McMaster at 18, Gresham Barrett at 16, and Andre Bauer at 13 (MoE 3.9). 39 isn’t enough to avoid a runoff, but Haley seems guaranteed to make it to that runoff. A previous poll had Haley at 30.

In California, which has no runoff, PPP shows Fiorina at 41 to Campbell’s 21 and Chuck DeVore’s 16. SurveyUSA had her at 46, but a 20 point lead will suffice in a state with no runoffs. Additionally, 21 is the lowest point Campbell has reached in the RCP history of the race and 16 is tied for the highest DeVore has seen since Campbell entered.

The combination of Palin’s endorsement and Fiorina’s television ad barrage seem not only to have broken the race open for the former HP CEO, but also appear to have sent Campbell on a downward slide, while DeVore’s also on the way up.

The South Carolina race is up in the air thanks to the runoff and certain allegations I won’t name, but barring a Howard Dean-scale collapse, I think Fiorina has the California Senate nomination wrapped up. It’s in the refrigerator, as Chick Hearn used to say.

That’s the power of Sarah Palin, it seems.

Possibly Related Posts

• June 9, 2010 -- Grading the Pollsters: June 8 edition
• June 8, 2010 -- Haley looking to avoid runoff in today’s primary [Updated x 2]
• May 24, 2010 -- Two minute warning in the California Senate Primary

Two polls on the California Senate Republican primary caught my attention today. I’ve been holding off posting on this race with my poll analysis hat on, because I wasn’t sure I could trust myself to be even handed enough.

But these two polls, coming as they are 15 days before election day, are interesting enough that I have to try. They could hardly be more different.

The first poll is the latest by SurveyUSA. In a jump reminiscent to me of Nikki Haley’s in South Carolina, Carly Fiorina gains 22 points in two weeks to take a huge 46 point total, widely ahead of Tom Campbell at 23 (down 11 from 2 weeks ago) and Chuck DeVore at 14 (down 1). The Margin of Error is 4. This lead is just so huge that it could be an outlier and still have Fiorina comfortably on top.

The numbers seem to mesh, though. In what I think is a key for the race, Fiorina draws 41% of Decline to State (California-ese for independent) voters, and Meg Whitman in her race gets 48%. My suspicion has been that Whitman would have coattails for Fiorina as voters back both women, or both former corporate chiefs from technical companies, whichever you prefer.

Fiorina also has a cash advantage right now. She can stay on the air running television ads all she wants, while Campbell has had to scale back and DeVore is also picking his spots, such as tonight’s showing of “24″ on Fox statewide. We’re the home of Hollywood, us here in California. We watch television, and don’t have much in the way of “newspapers” or “local news” to tell us “facts” about our state. Paid ads matter.

Endorsements also matter. While Chuck DeVore has on his side the conservative lion Jim DeMint, Carly Fiorina bagged Sarah Palin, which is why her jump reminds me of Haley’s. Both women received the Palin endorsement and both have shown poll advances.

But that’s not the only poll that came out today. The DeVore campaign put out an internal poll conducted by National Research with a different twist to it. It’s still not good for Campbell, as Fiorina also overtook him, but her lead is much smaller in this poll. She’s up 28 Fiorina-26 Campbell-19 DeVore (MoE 5). That 19 for DeVore is the highest showing I’ve seen for him in any poll since Campbell entered the race.

Three way races are volatile. If the DeVore internal poll is accurate then anyone could win this. However if the SUSA poll is accurate, Fiorina is winning this going away. And I don’t know how to evaluate which pollster is doing better this cycle. The only public poll from either source I’ve seen that relates to any of the major races this year was SurveyUSA’s poll 10 days before the Kentucky Senate Primary.

We may not know where we’re at for sure until election night. The SurveyUSA poll is matching my gut prediction of this race, but all that means is anything I say risks confirmation bias, so I’ll leave it at that.

Possibly Related Posts

• June 9, 2010 -- Grading the Pollsters: June 8 edition
• May 25, 2010 -- Palin shapes two races
• April 5, 2010 -- USC/LA Times poll of California races

USC and the LA Times polled some of the major California statewide races. The results, provided by pollsters Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and American Viewpoint, seem generally in line with what we’ve seen so far: Campbell and Fiorina are in a close primary race, lagged by DeVore. Boxer can’t reach 50. Whitman cruises in the primary.

The big news to my eye is that Jerry Brown has fallen behind.

Personally I’ve been assuming all along that former Governor Brown was a lock to win a third term. His only primary opposition quit early, and the Republican opponents show a marked leftward swing from the national party mainstream. Of the Republicans, not one major candidate for Governor this cycle claimed to be pro-life in a party well known for being on one side of the abortion wedge.

But here comes the USC/LA Times poll, which puts Whitman ahead of Brown 44-41 with a margin of error of 2.6, giving Whitman a 71% chance of being ahead. The poll joins others that Real Clear Politics has found in the last two weeks, none of which has given Brown a lead since one three weeks ago.

The USC/Times poll failed to match up specific Republicans against Barbara Boxer, so the Senate general election poll is less useful. Even so, Boxer fails to reach 50 even against the Republican Party brand. That cannot comfort her when other polls against Carly Fiorina show her within a point, and against Tom Campbell show her losing.

For the Democrats there are no meaningful primaries, as Boxer and Brown have no realistic challengers, so the only primary races to look at are on the Republican side. The Senate race is showing no movement at all, per this plot of the Real Clear Politics polling archive since November. Once Campbell entered, DeVore plummeted. He hasn’t cracked 10% since, while Fiorina has hung close to Campbell.

And the primary for the Governor’s race is hardly a contest, as Whitman shows 60% support, 40 points ahead of her remaining challenger, Steve Poizner. It’s difficult to imagine that race changing without a catastrophe that forced Whitman to withdraw.

Possibly Related Posts

• September 27, 2010 -- On the USC/LA Times poll of California
• June 9, 2010 -- Grading the Pollsters: June 8 edition
• October 15, 2010 -- GOP Reversal in California?

On the heels of a Rasmussen poll suggesting Democrats should worry about Senator Barbara Boxer’s re-election chances, comes worse news from Field for the three term incumbent.

The raw numbers: Campbell 44/Boxer 43, Fiorina 44/Boxer 45, DeVore 41/Boxer 45, 3.7% Margin of Error. My model’s win percentages: DeVore 29%, Fiorina 44%, and Campbell 55%.

Boxer had reason to worry when she dropped below 50 against all comers, showing that she’s lost the automatic majority that had previously stood ready to return her to the Senate. But now she even lacks a plurality against Tom Campbell. Carly Fiorina also looks ready to win 4 times out of 9. Even Chuck DeVore is improving, though he lags greatly in making himself known to the voters at all.

From January to March Field has Boxer going underwater in approval, dropping from +9 to -13. The Republicans were mostly steady: Campbell from +4 to +5, Fiorina held at -2, and DeVore went from -3 to -4, though only 22% of those polled had an opinion of him at all.

In a way it’s remarkable how close Chuck DeVore is despite the massive name recognition gap: 89% for Boxer, 41% for Campbell, 42% for Fiorina, and 22% for DeVore puts him far below the rest, yet he polls only a few points behind Boxer. I think the combination of the Rasmussen and Field polls suggests that Boxer will be in jeopardy no matter the result of the Republican primary. Whoever the Republicans nominate will gain in recognition and possibly in nationwide fundraising as well.

That would seem to be the reason that Al Gore, Barack Obama, and the DNC are all coming out to raise money for an 18 year incumbent Senator in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican Senator since 1988, and arguably never an outspoken pro-life Senator in the post-Roe era. This is surprising particularly for Boxer herself, who has won each Senate race with a margin double the previous: +5 in 1992, +10 in 1998, and +20 in 2004.

Senator Boxer has on her hands the fight of her political life.

Possibly Related Posts

• June 9, 2010 -- Grading the Pollsters: June 8 edition
• April 5, 2010 -- USC/LA Times poll of California races
• March 16, 2010 -- California Senate Roundup, 3-16-2010

The California Republican primary race to determine Barbara Boxer’s challenger is getting heated. And while all of us in the state have our biases and preferences, here’s what my cold, hard math says about Rasmussen’s latest poll.

As with last month, the poll again covers all three likely challengers to Barbara Boxer. It shows Fiorina 40/Boxer 46, DeVore 40/Boxer 46, Campbell 41/Boxer 43. All have a Margin of Error of 4.5. Running these numbers through my handy, dandy poll analyzer I get the following winning percentages: Campbell 41%, DeVore 25%, Fiorina 25%.

Stunning, isn’t it? My instinct, and I think the instinct of most who look at a poll like this, would say that a shift of a couple points of voters would not be so much of a big deal. But as it stands, my model and this poll show Campbell with a 15% better chance of beating Barbara Boxer. And these numbers have barely changed from a month ago.

Beyond the math, I have to conclude that Fiorina’s message has taken root. She has positioned herself from the start as a steadfast conservative, and her attacks on Barbara Boxer and Tom Campbell have come from the right. As a result, she polls equivalently with Chuck DeVore against Boxer. The voters seem to be giving her words the same weight as DeVore’s voting record.

It has to be substance becuase it’s not name recognition that distinguishes Campbell from Fiorina. Take a look at the favorability ratings. While a full third of those polled have no opinion of DeVore, Fiorina and Campbell are nearly tied at 24% and 23% respectively. It’s not loathing of Fiorina’s record at Hewlett Packard dragging her down, either, because Campbell and Fiorina are tied at 15% very unfavorable.

No, I’m convinced the issues are driving the polling in this race. DeVore runs on his conservative record, Fiorina positions herself as someone just as conservative, but Campbell is on the record as being to their left on key Republican issues like marriage and abortion.

In a close race, winning a few points could be all the difference. It’s now up to California Republicans to decide whether Campbell represents them enough, and whether he will be able to tap into enough voter enthusiasm for the price to be worth it.

Possibly Related Posts

• June 9, 2010 -- Grading the Pollsters: June 8 edition
• June 21, 2010 -- Boxer showing rare vulnerability for a California Democrat
• April 5, 2010 -- USC/LA Times poll of California races