Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Posts Tagged ‘ Rasmussen Reports ’

Rasmussen Reports has a new Nevada Senate poll out, and the results are looking terrible for Harry Reid. The Democrat is looking likely to be the second consecutive incumbent floor leader for his party to be voted out of office.

Conventional wisdom says incumbents below 50 are vulnerable. Well, two of the three Republicans running to replace him are now above 50, and the third is at 49.

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It’s late; I spent a lot of time preparing my nationwide modeling software, but here’s a quick look at the Arkansas Senate race, per Rasmussen. It’s a mess.

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Quinnipiac University released a new poll on the Ohio Governor’s race that has caused a stir. It shows Governor Ted Strickland, Democrat, ahead of former Congressman John Kasich, Republican, while previous polling showed the reverse.

The swing is large at first glance. Should Ohio Democrats be excited? Should Ohio Republicans panic? Let’s unpack this.

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The California Republican primary race to determine Barbara Boxer’s challenger is getting heated. And while all of us in the state have our biases and preferences, here’s what my cold, hard math says about Rasmussen’s latest poll.

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Rasmussen Reports polled all three likely California Senate matchups of Republicans against Senator Barbara Boxer, but only one candidate’s electability is routinely called into question: Assemblyman Chuck DeVore’s. Just how unelectable is he, according to Rasmussen? This poll serves as a fine example of how my individual poll analysis is going.

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