Unlikely Voter

Rasmussen has a new generic ballot out, and that means it’s time to see how the Swingometer projects the election to go based on that result.

Rasmussen Reports came out with its generic ballot today, too. Having already explained in depth how I did Gallup’s, I’ll analyze the consequences of Rasmussen’s numbers in brief.

The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Republicans have jumped to a 49-43 advantage, which National Review Online says is the largest Republican lead in 60 years.

Given the historical accuracy of the Gallup generic ballot in midterm elections, let’s plug this result in to the Swingometer.

Since my Swingometers are using terminology more often used in discussion of British elections, not American, it’s not surprising that some are unclear on just how they work.

Here’s an explanation.

The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Last time, it was even: 46-46. The two times before that it was at 45-45. Now it’s at R 46-D 45. Democrats have not led since March.

Gallup’s generic ballot is accurate in off year elections, so let’s see how that moves the Swingometer.