Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

Posts Tagged ‘ Gallup ’

Since my Swingometers are using terminology more often used in discussion of British elections, not American, it’s not surprising that some are unclear on just how they work.

Here’s an explanation.

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The new Gallup generic ballot is out. Last time, it was even: 46-46. The two times before that it was at 45-45. Now it’s at R 46-D 45. Democrats have not led since March.

Gallup’s generic ballot is accurate in off year elections, so let’s see how that moves the Swingometer.

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Some researchers led by Noah Smith at Carnegie Mellon tried an experiment: Could they predict the results of traditional polling, which has as its core feature a genuine random sample of people, with careful monitoring of Twitter?

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