Opinion Research polled California, Florida, and Kentucky for CNN and Time. The results seem off from those of other recent polls. Let’s find out why.

The key top lines follow. In California: Democrat Barbara Boxer 48, Republican Carly Fiorina 44 (MoE 3.5) for Senate. Democrat Jerry Brown 46, Meg Whitman 48 for Governor.

In Florida: Republican Marco Rubio 36, Independent Charlie Crist 34, Democrat Kendrick Meek 24 for Senate. Democrat Alex Sink 49, Republican Rick Scott 42 for Governor.

In Kentucky: Democrat Jack Conway 46, Republican Randal Paul 46 for Senate.

Particularly in Kentucky, these results don’t match up with those other polls have shown. It’s easy just to say “Oh, it’s a poll of registered voters, never mind” but it’s important to see why that matters, in case a time comes when it doesn’t matter.

Well first off, I find it interesting that the poll itself seems to emphasize the party labels on each candidate. Most polls I see usually just list candidate names, but this one make sure that you know that each candidate is the nominee of his party, and makes sure you know what party that is. That could skew things.

I also suspect these party ID figures are just way out of line… but OR doesn’t give those directly. So let’s see what we do have. Barbara Boxer is supposed to be getting 18% of conservatives. Yeah, and I have a bridge to sell you. For comparison, SurveyUSA has that figure at 8.

But yes, as we all know, having been registered to vote for the 2008 election isn’t especially meaningful as a predictor of voting in 2010, not when Democrats are deeply depressed in 2010, Republicans were depressed in 2008, and on top of that midterm elections get lower turnout than Presidential elections every time.

This is why I double weight Likely Voter polls in my Swingometer-based House projections and might start doing the same in my Possibly Related Posts

• August 19, 2010 -- More Quinnipiac contrarianism in Florida
• August 5, 2010 -- Confusion in the Florida Generals
• August 2, 2010 -- Daylight in the Florida Primaries

Tired of Florida yet? Too bad! Just about every public pollster is hitting the state comprehensively, so like a hanging chad this race will stick around at least until next week. And after Quinnipiac yesterday went contrarian on the primaries, today the firm goes contrarian on the general.

I call this new poll contrarian because it effectively projects no difference in the general elections no matter how the major primaries go:

Yes, we do see a slight loss for the Democrats when Greene is the nominee, which is the direction I project, but the single point of movement is inconclusive. The apparent voter indifference to the candidates is even easier to see in the Governor’s race:

It’s odd to see the Republican and Independent drawing precisely identical support levels in two matchups like that, but it happens. It’s as though the Quinnipiac survey is causing those surveyed to treat the primary candidates (between both Republicans for Governor and both Democrats for Senate) as generic partisan candidates.

But time and again, history has shown that specific candidates matter in specific states for specific races, showing an ability to win or lose when a generic partisan candidate would do the opposite. So honestly I’m skeptical of this poll having any predictive value.

Possibly Related Posts

• August 2, 2010 -- Daylight in the Florida Primaries
• August 5, 2010 -- Confusion in the Florida Generals
• September 9, 2010 -- So CNN and Time released a batch of polls

Just as I make my last post talking about a trend in the Florida Senate polling, Ipsos’ new poll for the St. Petersburg Times shows the opposite result.

2% difference between the Democrats, and in fact Charlie Crist doing one point better versus Kendrick Meek than he does against Jeff Greene. Rubio though still holds steady (30 and 29) in both matchups. Margin of Error is 4.

The difference though? Mason-Dixon polled their Likely Voter secret sauce, while Ipsos stuck to registered voters. Take it as you will, but I don’t think the 2010 electorate will look much like that of 2008.

Possibly Related Posts

• August 19, 2010 -- More Quinnipiac contrarianism in Florida
• August 16, 2010 -- Why I rated Rubio at 55% to win
• August 5, 2010 -- Confusion in the Florida Generals

Some may have questioned why, in my new Senate projection, I had Florida at a 55% chance to win for Republican Marco Rubio, when much of the polling has shown newly minted independent Charlie Crist with tiny leads.

It’s because I saw this new poll from Mason Dixon which not only covered the primary the Democrats are holding, but the consequences of that primary on the general election.

In the general election race, we’ve been seeing mixed results as Crist and Rubio tend to take the lead from each other, but a trend is clear in my view: Kendrick Meek holds more Democrats than Jeff Greene does. That trend continues in this poll: Against Meek, Rubio leads Crist 38-33 with 18 for Meek. Agaisnt Greene, Crist leads Rubio 39-38 with 12 for Greene (MoE 4 for both matchups). Note that Rubio draws the exact same support level in both matchups, 38%, while Crist moves 5% and the Democrats are separated by 6%.

So what, why does that favor Rubio as I did in the ratings? That’s because M-D also polled the primary, and Meek holds a large lead over Greene, 40-26 (MoE 5 for the primary). I calculate a 91% chance Meek actually leads, which is to me convincing.

Strictly discounting the Greene matchup, I show a 73% chance that Rubio leads Crist in the general. So after the primary there’s a chance I’ll be shifting that race even further toward the Republican column in my next race ratings.

Possibly Related Posts

• August 19, 2010 -- More Quinnipiac contrarianism in Florida
• August 16, 2010 -- Talk about bad timing
• August 5, 2010 -- Confusion in the Florida Generals

The last we looked in at Florida, the primaries seemed to be settling down. The two key races with remaining primaries, two Republicans running for Governor and two Democrats running for Senate, seemed to be showing clear frontrunners.

Well now a pair of polls have come out checking the general election matchups, but in those I’m seeing no clarity, but just a lot of noise and some confusing, close, three-way races.

First we have Rasmussen on the Governor’s race. Alex Sink’s support level manages to peg at exactly 31 against both Republicans, but Bill McCollum runs 8 points behind Rick Scott (MoE 4.5) at 27 to 35, and Bud Chiles gains 4 against McCollum, going from 16 to 20. McCollum seems to have been wounded in the primary. He could probably regain at least some of that support if he won, though, I think.

Meanwhile, on the Senate side, McLaughlin & Associates conducted a poll for the Associated Industries of Florida. The poll shows little change between the two Democrats in the running. Charlie Crist leads Marco Rubio 38-36 to Kendrick Meek’s 16, and Rubio pulls to a 37-37 tie to Jeff Greene’s 16. The one point shifts in Crist’s and Rubio’s support are far more likely to be random noise than a real difference, with a Margin of Error of 4 involved.

So Jeff Greene may be taking a lead in the primary, but Kendrick Meek seems no worse in the general right now, unlike Bill McCollum who seems to be taking big hits from Rick Scott in their primary.

Possibly Related Posts

• August 19, 2010 -- More Quinnipiac contrarianism in Florida
• August 2, 2010 -- Daylight in the Florida Primaries
• September 9, 2010 -- So CNN and Time released a batch of polls

Florida is a large and aggressively contested state. It, of all states, demands the clarity of traditional horserace polling. We have been denied that opportunity yet, though, because the Republicans still need a candidate for Governor and the Democrats still need a candidate for Senate.

Quinnpiac’s poll suggests we may get answers soon, as late entering political novices Rick Scott and Jeff Greene take leads, showing clear daylight between the candidates in each primary.

In the Republican race for Governor, Rick Scott was a surprise late entry against formerly-presumptive nominee Bill McCollum. Scott now leads, per Qunnipiac, 43-32 (MoE 3.6), which gives Scott a commanding 93% chance of being ahead right now, according to this poll and my model. In my view this is a reversal on the order of Marco Rubio’s comeback against the once Republican frontrunner for Senate, Charlie Crist.

Between the Democrats running for Senate, Jeff Greene has made a similar move against Kendrick Meek, the man once thought to be the certain nominee for his party. Greene leads 33-23 (MoE 3.5), for a 92% lead probability, similar in nearly every way to Scott’s lead on the other side.

Of course, once we have the nominees, we’ll have an entirely new set of challenges to deal with: the independents. In the matchup between Jeff Greene, Marco Rubio, and newly independent Charlie Crist, Quinnipiac’s general election poll gives us the painfully unclear 37 Crist – 32 Rubio – 17 Greene (MoE 3.2). Three candidates make for an unstable situation.

Likewise, in the race for Governor, Bud Chiles as an independent confuses the situation and we get Rick Scott 32 – Alex Sink 24 – Bud Chiles 11 for another three cornered race where relatively small swings could easily change the entire race.

We still have hope for clarity in Florida, though. My own suspicion is that the two contested primaries are inflating the support each independent is getting, and voters from both major parties will see large numbers “come home” for the general. That’s why third parties and independents so rarely win, after all.

Possibly Related Posts

• August 19, 2010 -- More Quinnipiac contrarianism in Florida
• August 5, 2010 -- Confusion in the Florida Generals
• September 9, 2010 -- So CNN and Time released a batch of polls

We have a pair of polls to look at updating us on the Florida Senate race, a general election carpet bomb from Rasmussen, and a peek at the race between the Democrats in the primary from PPP.

Unfortunately, what we don’t have is any clarity.

For the Democrats, PPP tells us what we already knew: it’s still a close race between Kendrick Meek and Jeff Greene. Meek leads Greene 28-25, with two other candidates near the Margin of Error of 5.3. It’s essentially a two way race, and Meek only pulls a 61% lead probability according to my math.

What Rasmussen tells us though is that it might not matter which Democrat runs. In looking at how both Democrats match up against newly left-leaning independent Charlie Crist and against Republican Marco Rubio, the differences look to me like random noise.

Against Meek, the result is Rubio 35 – Crist 33 – Meek 20 (MoE 4.5). Against Greene, it flips to Crist 36 – Rubio 34 – Greene 19. But Rubio only moves one point, as does the Democrat, and Crist moves only three. All of these changes are reasonably explained as noise caused by the randomness of the sample.

I will be interested to see if any of this changes once the Democrats and Republicans have official nominees, when Rubio and either Greene or Meek win their primaries making the choices becomes clear for left and right of center Floridians.

Possibly Related Posts

• August 5, 2010 -- Confusion in the Florida Generals
• August 19, 2010 -- More Quinnipiac contrarianism in Florida
• August 16, 2010 -- Talk about bad timing

For a while the polling of the Florida Senate race had many people thinking that Charlie Crist, newly minted Independent, was running away with it.

I disagreed and assumed his bump in the polls was driven by heavy coverage of his party switch and of his oil spill inspections. Rasmussen’s latest just might bear that out as Marco Rubio takes a fresh lead.

It’s a carpet bomb poll, matching up Rubio and Crist against the two likely nominees for the Democrats: Kendrick Meek and Jeff Greene. The ordering is the same for both though: Rubio and Crist are 1-2 at 36 and 34 against Meek’s 15, and they’re at 37 and 33 against Greene’s 18 (MoE 4.5).

All these little differences strike me as random sampling noise in a race that doesn’t change no matter which candidate the Democrats put up. Crist so far has squeezed the Democrats out.

How long he’ll manage that remains to be seen. Rasmussen has his job approval down 7 points in a month to 53%, and he simultaneously snags a quarter of Republicans and a majority of all of those who oppose repeal of the PPACA. That to me is a sign that Crist is trying to please a number of his old Republican voters while still reaching out to left of center independents. I don’t see how he keeps both.

Plus after the primary in August, the Democrats will have a clear nominee and that will surely give the primary winner a boost, whichever of Greene and Meek comes out on top. That will further erode Crist’s position.

So for now it’s a two way race with the Democrat far behind, but we could see this become a proper three way race by the fall, or we might see Rubio run away with it. Much will depend on Crist and how he resolves his tightrope strategy.

Possibly Related Posts

• August 5, 2010 -- Confusion in the Florida Generals
• July 23, 2010 -- Florida Senate Update
• August 19, 2010 -- More Quinnipiac contrarianism in Florida

Charlie Crist gave up the opportunity to run for re-election as Florida Governor to run for Senate, but instead got run out of the Republican primary and has since left the party entirely. I wonder what might have been had he just run for Governor instead.

Instead though, Republicans Bill McCollum and Rick Scott are fighting to challenge Democrat Alex Sink in November. Rasmussen polled these matchups.

I hate the carpet bomb general election polls in general, but with two Republicans and one Democrat I can live with it. And in the case of Florida, the key takeaway so far is that Sink runs markedly better against newcomer Scott than against McCollum. In fact, it’s a seven point swing.

But it’s not an even swing. Scott himself only gets two fewer points than McCollum, but Sink gains five. So yes, McCollum leads 43-35 (MoE 4.5) for a healthy 81% chance of leading. But Scott’s only up 41-40 for that slim 54% lead probability.

What may be driving this is that Scott (barely) has the lowest Very favorable rating of the three candidates (14 vs 15 and 15), but the highest Very unfavorable (14 vs 13 for McCollum and 10 for Sink). Since Scott also has the highest Not Sure rate (34 vs 20 for McCollum and 29 for Sink), Scott seems to be immediately disliked by a number of voters even as others are still learning who he is.

Are Democrats particularly motivated against him, perhaps? Or maybe a set of Independents? Time will tell I suppose.

Possibly Related Posts

• August 5, 2010 -- Confusion in the Florida Generals
• September 24, 2010 -- Terribly inconsistent polling in Florida
• August 19, 2010 -- More Quinnipiac contrarianism in Florida

In my first featured post at Unlikely Voter I illustrated how Marco Rubio went from being far, far behind Charlie Crist in the Republican Primary for the Florida Senate vacancy, to being the overwhelming favorite in the race.

Some wonder if Crist is taking this to heart and weighing and Independent run. Quinnipiac polled that scenario.

Now again, my modeling software doesn’t do three way races, but in the hypothetical matchup between Democrat Kendrick Meeks, Republican Marco Rubio, and hypothetical Independent Charlie Crist, Crist comes out slightly ahead. The tally is 32 Crist, 30 Rubio, 24 Meek,with a margin of error of 2.8.

Lacking my magical lead percentage figure, I’m looking at the crosstabs instead. Republicans back Rubio 64-30 over Crist, with Meek drawing 0. Democrats are what put Crist over the top, as they split 55 for Meeks, 27 for Crist, and 5 for Rubio.

I’d expect these numbers to change after an actual primary win or loss, though. If Crist lost many more Republicans at all due to being beaten by Rubio and actually leaving the party, then he falls behind even in this poll.

I would think his chances are better to wait for 2012 should he not close the gap with Rubio in this primary. That way he only takes on the Democrat and not also a Republican with a 2-1 edge on him.

Possibly Related Posts

• August 19, 2010 -- More Quinnipiac contrarianism in Florida
• August 2, 2010 -- Daylight in the Florida Primaries
• September 9, 2010 -- So CNN and Time released a batch of polls