Unlikely Voter

Poll Analysis and Election Projection

The race tightens in Maryland

There is more to life than the US Senate. In many states, control of the Governor’s office will have a critical role in the process of redistricting after the 2010 Census and reapportionment of US House seats.

So today we look at the Maryland Governor’s race as polled by Rasmussen.

 

Read More | April 26, 2010
Thompson declines and so do Wisconsin Republican hopes

Tommy Thompson was going to give Russ Feingold a tough race, but he decided not to run. How are Republicans doing now to challenge the three term incumbent? Rasmussen has a look.

 

Read More | April 23, 2010
Secret Sauce at work in the North Carolina Senate race

One race: North Carolina Senate general between Republican Richard Burr and prospective Democrats Cal Cunningham and Elaine Marshall. Two polls: Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports. Two markedly different results: Rasmussen shows Burr nearly 10 points higher than PPP does.

What’s going on?

 

Read More | April 22, 2010
Quick Hits for Wednesday

Here are a couple of quick hits of races we’ve covered recently: The Republican primary for the New Hampshire Senate race, and California general election for Governor.

 

Read More | April 21, 2010
Pennsylvania Special: Replacing Jack Murtha

 

Read More | April 21, 2010
Don’t write Perry onto the Presidential ticket yet

Do southerners do well in Presidential elections? Two of the last three Democrats to win were southern Governors, and the last two Republicans to win were Texans. That’s all some need to pencil in Rick Perry, two and a half term successor to George W. Bush, as a likely Republican nominee in 2012.

The latest from Rasmussen suggests his run for a third full term won’t be easy, though. The White vote could be an issue.

 

Read More | April 20, 2010
By Request: McCain v Hayworth

It’s slightly old but I know people are interested in this race, so an actual Rasmussen primary poll between Republicans JD Hayworth and John McCain.

McCain leads, but is he doing well?

 

Read More | April 19, 2010
My first simulation of the Senate election

I found today’s polls to be dull, so I wanted to do something I found fun and maybe even interesting this morning. I wrote a simple, very crude simulator to project the Senate results based on the Real Clear Politics race categories. RCP rates races Safe, Likely, or Leaning for one party or the other unless it’s a Toss Up.

Here’s what I found.

 

Read More | April 16, 2010
Quick hits for Friday

I don’t really think any of the newest polls I’m finding are particularly interesting, so I’ll just mention them all quickly and move on to something that hopefully is interesting.

 

Read More | April 16, 2010
Crist to run as independent in Florida?

In my first featured post at Unlikely Voter I illustrated how Marco Rubio went from being far, far behind Charlie Crist in the Republican Primary for the Florida Senate vacancy, to being the overwhelming favorite in the race.

Some wonder if Crist is taking this to heart and weighing and Independent run. Quinnipiac polled that scenario.

 

Read More | April 15, 2010