Once again, the polls were pretty close. Mitt Romney’s ground game carried him to overperform. Gingrich underperformed. A 10 point advantage became 14, and Romney approached an absolute majority closer than I imagined he could.

Romney sweeps Florida’s at-large delegates and takes a 66-25 lead among pledged delegates.

The key story of Tuesday night was that the gender gap returned for Gingrich. He’d closed it up in South Carolina, but it returned in Florida. If South Carolina was a fluke, then Gingrich has to find a way to start winning over Republican women if he’s to have a chance going forward.

I think Super Tuesday is zero hour for Gingrich. He has to win states outright in March. But, the problem may be surviving that long in a pro-Romney February. Nevada and Colorado are Mormon country, and that community is backing Romney. Michigan was Romney’s big win last time, and there’s no reason to expect different this time. Gingrich isn’t even on the ballot in Missouri.

I won’t call the race over, but Gingrich is running out of options.

Possibly Related Posts

• January 30, 2012 -- Florida update: Mitt Romney to win by 10
• January 26, 2012 -- Huge Romney bounce in Florida
• January 23, 2012 -- Huge Gingrich bounce in Florida

It’s popular to talk down polling, but from where I sit, the polling of the primaries has been pretty good. Yes, Iowa was terrible, but that was a caucus. The primary polling has been solid.

Florida’s polling has lined up in a nice, neat band for every candidate, making it easy to say Mitt Romney is going to win tomorrow.

Real Clear Politics, the indispensable feed of the latest polls, shows 7 polls ending the weekend, and 4 more ending Friday. They all put Mitt Romney in a range of 36-44. To see an 8 point range over 11 polls is not surprising when the polls all have margins of error around 3-5. Newt Gingrich? He’s shown in a range of 26-32, a 6 point range in the same circumstances.

We’re in that rare and special spot when we have so many polls taken all at once, that the statistical properties of polling become visually apparent. We can reasonably project from these polls that Mitt Romney’s true value is at 40. Newt Gingrich’s true value 29. Rick Santorum shows up at 13.5. Ron Paul clocks in with a 9.5.

So, as a result of the wealth of the polling we’re seeing, barring some very last minute, unexpected news like Rick Santorum dropping out today, I’m expecting a double-digit Mitt Romney win tomorrow, but he’ll come short of a majority. I still expect us to start seeing majority wins by Super Tuesday, though.

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• January 23, 2012 -- Huge Gingrich bounce in Florida
• January 12, 2012 -- South Carolina: Huntsman up, but not Romney?
• January 10, 2012 -- Primary Day in New Hampshire

Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst wants to be the next Senator from Texas. All he should have to do is win the Republican primary. The last Democrats to represent Texas in each Senate class were Lloyd Bentsen and Lyndon Johnson.

It’s looking good for him too, but not as good as it could be.

Dewhurst has a hurdle to get over: TEA party activists who would rather he not win. Fortunately for him though, he’s doing better than Charlie Crist was in January 2010, as at that point Marco Rubio had tied the Florida Senate race.

The would-be Next Marco Rubio, former Solicitor General Ted Cruz, has not tied this race. In fact, a recent poll by Mike Baselice shows Cruz in third. Dewhurst leads the poll of 600 Republican LVs, MoE 4, the poll itself promoted by the Dewhurst campaign says the Austin American-Statesman. That’s great news for him.

The bad news for him though is that he’s just barely doing well enough to avoid a runoff. Dewhurst 50, former Mayor Tom Leppert 9, Cruz 5, Craig James 3, Glenn Addison 1 is a huge lead for Dewhurst. It suggests that Dewhurst is the favorite in the primary, is about even money to avoid a runoff, and would be a favorite in the runoff as he bests his combined competition 50-18.

But 50-18 means there are lots of undecided Texas Republicans. His opposition is much less known per a recent Public Policy Polling survey that put Leppert at 63% no opinion, Cruz at 69%, and James at 67% versus Dewhurst’s 40%. That leaves room both for Dewhurst’s lead to shrink, and for some people to change their minds.

David Dewhurst has a lead he can be happy about, but he hasn’t sewn up this race. We could yet see movement as we did in Florida 2010.

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• January 21, 2012 -- Gingrich to win, and win big
• January 19, 2012 -- Quick update: Gingrich is ahead
• January 16, 2012 -- Before Huntsman quit, polling stability in South Carolina

We were spoiled by the New Hampshire and South Carolina polling. Those states weren’t stagnant in voter opinion, but they at least moved at reasonable speeds, and allowed for a clear understanding of what was going on.

Florida is different. After swinging 20 points to Newt Gingrich, has now gone 10-15 points right back to Mitt Romney.

Today I’m looking at the polls that ended Tuesday and Wednesday. That includes three big, familiar names this cycle: ORC/CNN/Time, Rasmussen Reports, and InsiderAdvantage.

I hate inconsistencies. The less consistent the polling is, either across pollsters or between readings, the less confident we can be in making predictions based on that polling. We can never be sure whether the changes are the result of real movement in the electorate, or the result of some form of measurement error.

In the case of Florida right now, the polling is looking to be inconsistent over time. Rasmussen Reports (750 LVs, MoE 4) shows Romney 39, Gingrich 31, a 17 point swing from the Romney 32, Gingrich 41 reading of just three days before. Inside Advantage (530 LVs, MoE 4) is very close to that: Romney 40, Gignrich 32, a 16 point swing from three days before.

CNN/Time (369 LVs, MoE 5) didn’t poll a few days ago, and in fact didn’t poll in a week. So CNN apparently missed the Gingrich bump and kept Romney ahead all the time. Be careful though, while Romney 36, Gingrich 34 though is a worse result for Romney than the other two, don’t be misled by the fact that CNN shows a 22 point pro-Gingrich swing since its last poll. This is why only looking at swings within a single pollster’s results isn’t a technique I use.

Estimated win probabilities based on each poll: 84% Romney, 84% Romney, 57% Romney. So it’s very near even if CNN is right, otherwise Gingrich needs pull another surge from his sleeve to get Florida on his side.

Some will say Gingrich clearly can do it, since Florida has been volatile. Others say Gingrich’s lead was a mirage, and was a bump he was never going to sustain, just basking in great media coverage after South Carolina and a debate. My suspicion is that voters just aren’t sure. In the YouTube era, every candidate is now visibly flawed.

Possibly Related Posts

• January 19, 2012 -- One pollster gives Gingrich South Carolina surge, others disagree
• December 29, 2011 -- Iowa Poll Update: This news is ridiculous
• January 23, 2012 -- Huge Gingrich bounce in Florida

When word came out of InsiderAdvantage’s new Florida poll, I said to myself “I’ve heard this story before.” Newt Gingrich shooting up like a rocket, but confirmation is needed.

Rasmussen provided the confirmation.

When InsiderAdvantage was out first with Gingrich’s South Carolina jump, I posted quickly to say we needed confirmation, only to get that confirmation hours later. This time I waited, and it paid off.

So here we are: Two polls, Rasmussen with 750 LV and MoE 4, InsiderAdvantage with 557 LV and also a listed MoE of 4. Insider Advantage has more undecideds, so that the absolute numbers are different, but they’re close and the gap is the same.

Ras: Gingrich 41, Romney 32. Rick Santorum and Ron Paul battle for third at 11 and 8. IA: Gingrich 34, Romney 26. Paul passes Santorum with an 13-11 margin.

Early voting throws an interesting kink into this polling, as it draws somewhat of a distinction between polling current opinion and predicting who will win, but this looks like the same pattern we saw in South Carolina: Gingrich, then [Romney], then Gingrich again at the end.

Possibly Related Posts

• December 29, 2011 -- Iowa Poll Update: This news is ridiculous
• January 30, 2012 -- Florida update: Mitt Romney to win by 10
• January 26, 2012 -- Huge Romney bounce in Florida

Republicans are voting today in South Carolina. And as we’ve seen since New Hampshire, the polling has been pretty consistent. The debates, the exits from the race, and all the momentum seem to have benefited one man: Newt Gingrich.

If Gingrich doesn’t come in first in South Carolina today, it will be a large upset.

We had four polls out on the 18th, and three since Perry quit. Mitt Romney only shows a lead in one, the very oldest that was out on the 17th and the 18th. Every poll since has Gingrich ahead. Only one poll since has Romney over 30, while every poll has Gingrich over 30.

My estimated lead probabilities for the various post-Rick Perry polls that RCP has up: 96% (PPP), 73% (Clemson), 81% (Older PPP). Going back before that, with Perry still included, 66% (InsiderAdvantage), 59% (Rasmussen). To me, these figures clarify the trend. Rick Perry kept Mitt Romney close. When he left, the race became Newt Gingrich’s to lose.

And now we’re all left like those cameras in Charleston: watching and waiting.

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• January 19, 2012 -- Quick update: Gingrich is ahead
• January 16, 2012 -- Before Huntsman quit, polling stability in South Carolina
• January 19, 2012 -- One pollster gives Gingrich South Carolina surge, others disagree

I said earlier today “One poll, one time, from one pollster, when two others disagree, does not make a surge.” Since then, Rasmussen Reports has announced and PPP has teased polls that confirm the Gingrich lead that InsiderAdvantage showed.

And then Rick Perry quit the race, endorsing Newt Gingrich.

Note that these new polls still show Romney close to where he’s been. Romney’s off some from his peak just a day or two ago, but he’s not down the 10 points or so that Gingrich appears to be gaining.

This could be an interesting finish yet in South Carolina.

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• January 21, 2012 -- Gingrich to win, and win big
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• January 19, 2012 -- One pollster gives Gingrich South Carolina surge, others disagree

InsiderAdvantage polled South Carolina just a few days ago on the 15th, and Mitt Romney had a 32-21 lead on Newt Gingrich.

NewsMax had them poll again on the 18th, and the results were different. Gingrich takes his first SC poll lead in a month.

Facts: 720 LVs, postweighted, MoE 3.8.

The result is a huge swing from just a few days ago. We’ve gone from Romney +11 to Gingrich +3, a 14 point swing, but it’s not zero-sum. Gingrich gains 11 points, Romney loses 3. Jon Huntsman’s voters shifted heavily toward Newt Gingrich if this poll pans out, and isn’t just some fluke result for that one candidate, the former Speaker.

This is now our first major contradiction in the South Carolina polling. Rasmussen Reports showed Romney +14 in that firm’s first post-Huntsman poll. CNN/ORC shows Romney +10 (33-23) in their first post-Huntsman reading.

So two polls continue to show Gingrich in the 21-24 band he’s held for the last two weeks, but one poll gives him a huge boost. I conclude it’s possible that SC has very suddenly gotten a lot more competitive, but it’s not a sure thing.

One poll, one time, from one pollster, when two others disagree, does not make a surge.

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• January 26, 2012 -- Huge Romney bounce in Florida
• December 29, 2011 -- Iowa Poll Update: This news is ridiculous
• January 21, 2012 -- Gingrich to win, and win big

Political commentators want action and excitement. I’m included in this; I’ve been holding off and holding off on posting on the new polling in case something exciting happened.

It hasn’t. Mitt Romney’s just ahead, folks. And I expect his lead will only grow with Jon Huntsman out.

Three polls have hit South Carolina regularly: Insider Advantage, PPP, and Rasmussen. I was hard on these guys over the Iowa caucuses, so I want to be clear now: since we’ve returned to primaries, the polling has looked solid to me. Even PPP, a favorite target of mine lately, was rather good in New Hampshire, only missing a little bit of very late movement to Huntsman.

So I like to see stability in the South Carolina polling, as it tells me the polling is likely accurate. From the 5th to the 11th Romney was shown leading with a range of 23-30, and a lead of 2-9. Now though, from the 12th to the 15th, Romney is in a much tighter range of 28-32, with a lead of 5-11.

As I floated last time, Insider Advantage’s 1/11 result for Mitt Romney was an outlier. It was a freak one-off result that was just strangely low. Every poll since has been 28 or above, including IA’s whopping 32 for Romney that just came out.

I conclude Newt Gingrich isn’t going away, Rick Santorum’s Iowa bounce has faded, and the best hope for a shakeup in this race is for Jon Huntsman’s backers to flock to Gingrich. But that doesn’t seem likely. Even without Huntsman pulling all his anti-Romney ads, it seems likely Romney would get his share of Huntsman’s voters.

Of course, there’s always the debate that just concluded…

Possibly Related Posts

• January 21, 2012 -- Gingrich to win, and win big
• January 12, 2012 -- South Carolina: Huntsman up, but not Romney?
• January 10, 2012 -- Primary Day in New Hampshire

InsiderAdvantage appears to be the first out of the gate in South Carolina after Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. As expected, South Carolina is showing movement from New Hampshire, the way New Hampshire and South Carolina showed movement from Iowa.

At least, Rick Santorum is down and Jon Huntsman is up. Sticking out though is the lack of any gain for Mitt Romney.

In fact, it looks like Romney’s lost ground. The three polls before New Hampshire had Romney at 27, 30, and 37, with 18, 9, and 7 point leads over Newt Gingrich (though one had Rick Santorum in second). But now he’s down to a tiny 23-21 lead.

In fact with the sample of 726 primary LVs, we can estimate the Margin of Error at 3.6, and my calculation estimates a 40% chance Newt Gingrich is even in the lead at this point.

Jon Huntsman seems to have gotten a bounce. His 7% is by far the highest he’s ever polled in the state. It’s almost double his previous high of 4, in fact. And yet, I think in a normal year he’d have gotten a bigger bounce than that from his New Hampshire finish.

The reason he didn’t is Ron Paul. Sean Trende made a point recently on the Twitters: he suggested that that Ron Paul is crowding out Mitt Romney’s competitors in this race. Paul shows no chance of winning for reasons I’ve mentioned previously, and also because he of all people must win this race with Gold, not Silver or Bronze, but his third place finish in Iowa and his second place finish in New Hampshire are muting the impact of the other finishes. Both of Paul’s finishes were gained by winning crossover and independent vote, but he gets the headlines anyway.

I’d like to see more polling of this race obviously. It’s possible this was just a bad one-off result for Romney. But even if Romney seems to have no momentum, no other candidate is shooting up to knock him off, either. Romney as frontrunner won’t go away. Somebody has to put him away, or he’ll simply cruise to victory.

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• January 16, 2012 -- Before Huntsman quit, polling stability in South Carolina
• January 23, 2012 -- Huge Gingrich bounce in Florida
• January 10, 2012 -- Primary Day in New Hampshire