I was going nuts watching West Virginia get almost no polling, even as Rasmussen Reports repeatedly showed the race close. Well I need not pull my hair out any longer, as Public Policy Polling hit the race.
And once again, the theory of a Rasmussen “House Effect” for Republicans is called into question.
Rasmussen had yet to show a lead for Republican John Raese over the incredibly popular Governor and Democrat Joe Manchin, but that’s precisely what PPP has just done. Raese leads the poll 46-43 (MoE 2.6).
Key figure: Manchin is still rather popular, with job approval way up at 59/32/9, and the sample correctly shows the state strong in registration for the Democrats at 51 D/37 R, but Barack Obama is terribly unpopular at 30/64/6, and the PPACA likewise is disliked at 27/63/11.
West Virginia has Democrats, but they’re not the same kind of Democrat we generally see in DC today. This may be the beginning of West Virginia’s in-state realignment to match the rest of the country.
House of Representatives Swingometer
Electoral College Swingometer
3 point lead and 2.6 point MOE. What %R victory chance would you give that?
46-43, MoE 2.6. It’s a small lead but it’s also a very small MoE. I show it 71/29 in favor of Raese per the PPP poll.